Ludovic Orban: One of the reasons why Romania's rating is not improving is the lack of confidence in PSD. What Fitch Ratings actually says
Ludovic Orban. PHOTO:: lcv / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia
The leader of Forza Dreptei, Ludovic Orban, former prime minister, says on Sunday evening that Fitch's decision shows that “it's not bad, but it's not good”, writes news.ro.
It would have been best for the rating agency to give up the negative perspective, which would have led to a decrease in the costs at which Romania borrows. The leader of Forța Dreptei states that, according to Fitch's reasoning, one of the reasons why Romania's rating does not improve is the lack of trust in the PSD, which will occupy the position of prime minister from June 2027.
“The Fitch rating agency maintained Romania's sovereign rating. It's not bad. But it's not good. It would have been good to improve it. That is, to be BBB, but without the negative perspective. We could have borrowed with lower interest rates”, former Prime Minister Ludovic Orban wrote on Facebook on Sunday evening.
According to him, it is “very interesting” that, in the motivation of the decision, “Fitch mentions in black and white the lack of confidence in the fact that the fiscal consolidation process will be maintained in 2027 and 2028, considering the expected change of the prime minister provided for in the coalition protocol and the fact that 2028 is an election year”.
“I mean, one of the reasons why Romania's rating is not improving is the lack of confidence in the PSD, which will occupy the position of prime minister from June 2027. And it is impossible for me to contradict this assessment,” Orban also said.
We remind you that the Fitch rating agency maintained, on Friday, the long-term issuer rating in foreign currency (LTFC) of Romania at “BBB-“, with a negative outlook.
What Fitch Ratings says in the release
The negative outlook reflects the continued deterioration of public finances due to large fiscal deficits and the rapid growth of the public debt/GDP ratio, the agency said in its official statement.
The government formed in the summer of 2025 has begun implementing significant fiscal consolidation measures that will lead to significant fiscal consolidation in 2026, although the 2026 budget has not yet been adopted, Fitch added.
Significant risks to fiscal consolidation persist over the medium term, in our view, due to weak growth, enforcement difficulties, fiscal fatigue and tensions within the four-party governing coalition, the paper's authors note.
“The high inflation represents a weakness of the rating for Romaniaexacerbated by the temporary inflationary impact of the increase in the VAT rate and the expiry of the electricity price ceiling. Inflation has been above the target of 2.5% +/-1 percentage point set by the National Bank of Romania for five years, and the three-year average inflation for the period 2024-2026 is double the current median of “BBB” rated countries.
Lower political risks: Political uncertainty has diminished considerably since the election of President Nicușor Dan in May and the formation of a four-party, pro-Western government with a comfortable majority in July 2025, which has facilitated the adoption of fiscal consolidation packages. However, visible tensions within the coalition, including those related to the 2026 budget negotiations, the political cost of fiscal consolidation and high internal polarization could call into question the adoption of further measures to reduce the large fiscal deficit,” Fitch Ratings said in the statement.
