The first reactions after the Statistics verdict: economists “rewrite” 2026 with lower figures

The Romanian economy has entered recession, according to the announcement made by Statistics on Friday, the first reactions of bank specialists being to moderate optimism regarding 2026.

“The message sent by the INS is clear: the economy ended 2025 in visible difficulties. The GDP contracted with the sharpest quarterly decline since 2012, excluding the pandemic. We know from the latest revisions of the data that Romania managed to enter recession in the first part of 2024”, write in a note addressed to investors the chief economist of ING Bank, Valentin Tătaru and Stefan Posea, economist at ING.

ING: We revise our growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6%

The two blame the recession on falling private consumption (“the main culprit”), and weaker private investment. Public investment prevented a deeper recession, the two economists write.

“Under these conditions, our previous growth estimate for 2026 of 1.4% looks optimistic, even if it was already at the lower end of most estimates. Given the very weak reading in Q4 2025, the economy will have to work hard just to stay in positive territory. We are therefore revising our 2026 forecast from 1.4% to 0.6% and await the detailed breakdown on March 6”, says the ING Bank note.

The paper's authors also say that consumption is likely to remain subdued this year, as real wages are expected to remain negative for some time, affecting demand at least in the first half of the year. “But the peak of the investment cycle and the fiscal stimulus currently being discussed should support activity later – although much of the impact will likely occur later in 2026 and especially in 2027,” Tătaru and Posea conclude.

They admit that the disappointing GDP figure could encourage the National Bank of Romania to focus its monetary easing cycle ahead, but it could also increase pressure on the government to moderate the pace of fiscal consolidation given the extent of the setback.

BCR cuts growth estimate for 2026 to 1%.

The INS signal estimate provided a negative surprise, GDP growth for the full year 2025 was +0.6%, down from +0.9% in 2024. These figures were well below market expectations, according to a BCR briefing sent to investors.

Based on data released today, we are revising down our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 2.1% previously. Household consumption is likely to remain subdued in the first half of the year, reflecting still tight financial conditions and persistent pressures on real incomes, the paper's authors said.

They expect more detailed data to be released on March 6 to confirm weak household consumption hit by fiscal measures, neutral net exports and a disappointing investment performance.

BCR economists also expect investment activity to accelerate in 2026, supported by substantial EU funds available to Romania.