publication
2026-02-12 10:20
The Central Statistical Office has published the latest data on Poland's economic growth. After an excellent third quarter, the end of the year brought an acceleration in the annual dynamics. The result for the entire year 2025 confirms that the Polish economy, although it can afford more, is on the right track. Forecasts for 2026 predict an acceleration in the growth rate.
Poland's gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2025 was realistically (i.e. after taking into account inflation) 4% higher than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. These data complete the picture of the Polish economy last year, which was characterized by a clear recovery after weaker years. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the dynamics amounted to 1%, and the seasonally adjusted annual growth was estimated at 3.6%.
A strong end to the year
The result for the fourth quarter exceeded the expectations of market economists, whose consensus forecasts estimated growth at 3.9%. These estimates were based on successively published monthly data from the real economy, such as industrial production dynamics, construction and retail sales results, as well as preliminary data for the entire previous year. Not only market economists, but also government representatives shared their predictions. In its forecasts, the Ministry of Finance assumed that the growth in the fourth quarter would amount to 3.4%.
The annual GDP dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2025 was the fastest since the third quarter of 2022. Thanks to the good end of the year, Poland's GDP growth in the entire 2025 amounted to 3.6%, which the Central Statistical Office announced already at the end of January. As we reported then, this result was received by experts with mixed feelings – on the one hand, it means a clear improvement compared to previous years, but on the other, quoting market comments, it was “growth below our aspirations”.
What will 2026 bring? Poland “top of Europe”
However, the forecasts for the coming months are optimistic. Most financial institutions expect that the Polish economy will accelerate even further in 2026. Bank Pekao economists see Poland as the “economic leader of Europe”, forecasting that in 2026 GDP growth may accelerate to 4.0%. The Institute of International Finance expects the same growth rate.
Dr. Piotr Arak, chief economist at Velo Bank, expects Poland's GDP dynamics to accelerate to 3.7% in 2026. According to him, the foundation will be a combination of solid growth with low inflation and unemployment. In turn, according to Coface analysts, Polish GDP will grow by 3.8% in 2026, and the main source of growth will be investments driven by the National Reconstruction Plan.
“We forecast that in 2026 the GDP growth rate will accelerate to 3.7%, and an even better result is possible. This growth will be supported by the continuing good income situation of households, improving corporate income, the inflow of funds from KPO and the expected revival of external demand,” PKO economists wrote in a commentary on the latest data.
ING economists echo their sentiments: “Seasonally adjusted data indicate an acceleration of growth to 1.0% q/q. A solid starting point for further growth in activity in 2026. This year we expect GDP growth of 3.7% or more,” they wrote on the X platform.
However, there is no shortage of conservative opinions, e.g. in January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated the growth rate at 3.5% in 2026, and at the same time predicts a slowdown in GDP dynamics to 2.7% already in 2027. In turn, the increase in Polish GDP at 3.2% in 2026 is estimated by the World Bank, although we hope that this time it simply underestimated Poland's potential, just as it did in 2025, predicting growth of 3.3%. However, everything indicates that the acceleration of the Polish economy is permanent and after a solid 2025, 2026 may see the 4% barrier broken. GDP growth, especially with increasingly better data from the German economy.
Thursday's data published by the Central Statistical Office is preliminary. The first revision of the regular estimate will be published on March 2, 2026.
