One of the Baltic countries warns that Russia is producing so much weaponry that it will be able to wage a war in parallel with the one in Ukraine
Dmitri Medvedev visiting an arms factory, Photo: east2west news / WillWest News / Profimedia
Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO member country this year or next, but is rushing to rebuild its forces as Europe steps up its rearmament, Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said in its annual report released on Tuesday and seen by Reuters.
The small Baltic country has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022 and a harsh critic of Moscow.
“(Europe) needs to invest in defense and internal security so that … in the future, Russia will conclude that it has no chance against NATO countries,” Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian intelligence service, told reporters.
“We see that the Russian leadership is very concerned about… European rearmament, [rușii] I see that Europe could be able to take independent military action against Russia in two to three years,” Rosin said. Russia's goal now is to “delay and prevent” that, he added.
The service he led noted in its report that ammunition production is expanding so rapidly in Russia that President Vladimir Putin's country will be able to stockpile supplies for future wars while continuing to fight in Ukraine.
The report also noted that any Russian attack on Estonia would involve drones “on land, in the air and at sea, simultaneously over the entire territory of Estonia.”
Estonia's intelligence service says Russia is playing a double game with the US
The Estonian intelligence service said the Kremlin continues to see the US as its main global adversary, while feigning willingness to cooperate to get US sanctions lifted.
“This shift was driven by the Kremlin's ambition to exploit the new US administration to restore bilateral relations and pursue a deal that would formalize the defeat of Ukraine,” the report said.
“Despite this illusory relaxation, Russia's goals remain unchanged: it seeks to marginalize the United States and NATO and redefine Europe's security architecture according to Moscow's vision,” the document adds.
The report notes that China sees Russia as a useful ally to marginalize the West and a source of energy should a conflict with Taiwan lead to sanctions or a maritime blockade. The document also points out that Russia and China are exchanging research in the field of military technology.
“Any concessions made to Russia would, in effect, also fuel China's global ambitions,” the report concluded.
It was published just days after Estonia announced it would close two major border crossings with Russia at night, citing the neighboring country's “irrational behaviour”, but gave no details.
