An unknown intellectual from California is dictating the future of Trump and Vance's foreign policy

You may not have heard of Andy Baker. However, he is one of the key figures behind the increasingly confrontational foreign policy promoted by the Trump administration, particularly in relation to Europe.

Andy Baker, deputy national security adviser/PHOTO: Getty Images

Baker, the deputy national security adviser, briefly came into the public eye almost by accident in March when Vice President JD Vance named him as his main interlocutor in a leaked government chat group related to US strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels.

But his low public profile contrasts with the growing influence he wields inside the White House.

A key figure from the shadows

Rarely photographed and extremely reserved, Andy Baker became a central figure in JD Vance's circle of advisers. He contributes significantly to shaping the vice president's foreign policy vision and some of the administration's most important national security decisions — including the increasingly tough approach to the United States' European allies.

Although little known outside Washington and European capitals, Baker is seen as essential to understanding certain strands of President Donald Trump's foreign policy that have surprised and unsettled European leaders from Munich to eastern Ukraine.

With the rise of JD Vance as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2028, the influence of Baker – an avowed adherent of “realism” in foreign policy, skeptical of traditional alliances and US military interventions – is expected to increase.

“Andy will play a role in any future administration,” said Alex Wong, Trump's former deputy national security adviser, whom Baker replaced in the post.

A vision that challenges the status quo

According to multiple sources — including government officials, European diplomats and foreign policy experts — Baker's imprint is visible on some of the Trump administration's most unconventional positions.

He reportedly helped draft JD Vance's tough speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, a speech that sparked controversy in European capitals. In his speech, Vance criticized European leaders for failing to protect free speech and manage illegal immigration, arguing that Europe's drift away from its “core values” was the main threat to the transatlantic alliance.

The same line of thinking is found in the new US National Security Strategy, in the development of which Baker is said to have had a major role. The document criticizes the expansion of NATO, advocates limiting the alliance's role and welcomes the rise of nationalist parties in Europe, considered expressions of a “patriotic” identity.

“Flexible Realism”

Ideologically, Baker is associated with the Republican wing known as “restrainers” – politicians and pundits who advocate reducing US military involvement abroad. The Trump administration describes this approach as “flexible realism”: a foreign policy based on the strict calculation of American interests, not on the promotion of values ​​or democracy across borders.

This orientation is leading more European officials to embrace the idea that the “America First” doctrine could outlast Trump's mandate.

“It is clearly perceived as a lasting change”, said a British official, who described Baker as an active and attentive interlocutor in dialogue with allies.

Forming a skeptical view

Andy Baker comes from a working-class family in the San Francisco Bay Area. He studied history at Berkeley University, then international relations at Oxford, where he obtained his Ph.D. His scholarly work, later published as a volume, analyzed the post-World War II international order and emphasized the importance of shared commitments on sovereignty and the use of force.

Between 2010 and 2023, Baker was a career diplomat in the State Department, with assignments in Afghanistan and NATO headquarters in Brussels. The experience has made him, those close to him say, increasingly critical of the way the US uses its power in the world.

“He was deeply scarred by what he saw,” said a source familiar with his work. “He came to believe that American foreign policy served elites rather than ordinary people.”

That perspective brought him close to JD Vance, a former Marine and senator from Ohio known for his skeptical stances on military support for Ukraine.

Ukraine and tensions with allies

After Trump's victory in 2024, Baker and Vance had an opportunity to put their vision into action, particularly in dealing with the war in Ukraine. Baker, who speaks fluent Russian, has been involved in the negotiation efforts, including the mineral resource deal talks.

Critics in Europe, however, believe that he overestimates Russia's strength. “He is very intelligent, but his interpretation of Russia is very different from ours,” said one European official.

A growing influence

Baker currently works closely with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior members of the National Security Council. Although described as an intellectual rather than a political operator, his influence is widely acknowledged.

For observers trying to anticipate what US foreign policy might look like in a possible post-2028 Vance era, Andy Baker is a name to watch closely.

“He reflects an important strand of Republican foreign policy thinking,” says a former National Security Council official. “And this competition of ideas tells us a lot about the future of debate in the United States.”