Signal from the National Bank: Romania is stable, but operates on fragile balances. The risks add up

Romania is not in a financial crisis, but neither is it in an economic comfort zone, the Central Bank points out.

It is, in short, the conclusion of the survey published by the National Bank of Romania regarding systemic risks, a document that shows what the banks see from the inside: where tensions gather, what can derail and what are the vulnerabilities that can become serious problems if a shock occurs.

The NBR's message: there is no single major danger, but a combination of risks that can feed each other – budget deficit, external deficit, dependence on state financing, pressure on companies and installment borrowers.

The most important banks in Romania, surveyed by the National Bank, identified six high risks and another five moderate risks.

The economy consumes more than it produces

At the top of the worries is the deterioration of the internal macroeconomic balances – a technical expression, but one that has a very concrete meaning: Romania constantly spends more than it produces and finances the difference through debt.

This problem can be seen in two areas: in the budget deficit (the state spends more than it collects) and in the current account deficit (Romania imports more than it exports).

Even if we took it separately, each imbalance is difficult to manage. Together, they increase the country's vulnerability to a change in context: higher interest rates, less investment, a geopolitical shock or an economic slowdown in the EU.

Banks and the state – a link that helps today, but can create problems tomorrow

A sensitive point constantly pointed out in such evaluations is the close connection between banks and public finances. Banks are among the main buyers of government securities. The state, in turn, needs constant financing for the deficit and refinancing.

This relationship has a clear advantage: the state can borrow relatively stably, and the banks have assets considered safe.

But there is also a vulnerability: if the sovereign risk increases (for example, due to the large deficit or a deterioration of the rating), the financing costs for the state increase. And the pressure is quickly transmitted to the banks as well, through interest rates, revaluation of securities and investor confidence.

Lending: where the first cracks appear

The survey published by the National Bank shows that banks are alert to the risk that some of the loans will become more difficult to repay.

We are not talking about an inevitable wave of bad loans, but the pressure is real, especially in the most sensitive areas: SMEs with small margins and low liquidity, companies dependent on consumption, people who have loans and have been hit by price increases and interest rates.

After two years of inflation eroding incomes and interest rates remaining high, the risk is simple: some of the economy enters 2026 with a smaller “reserve” of resilience.

A risk that is not seen in GDP

A classic vulnerability in Romania, strongly felt in the economy and signaled even now, is the financial blockage between companies: delays in payments, unpaid invoices, debt chains between companies.

This phenomenon does not show up spectacularly in statistics, but it produces cascading effects: delays between firms → insolvencies → bad loans → banks become more cautious → financing is restricted → the economy slows down.

In the BNR survey, this area appears indirectly, through the perceived risk in the corporate environment and credit quality.

What “systemic risk” means in real life

Case 1: a small company caught between price increases and delays

A construction company in a medium-sized city works on public and private contracts. Materials have become more expensive, labor costs have increased, and payments are getting harder to come by. The company does not go bankrupt immediately, but starts to delay the payment of some invoices or installments.

In NBR terms, this is the beginning: a liquidity risk that can become a credit risk.

Case 2: a family with credit, caught between interest and price increases

A family with a mortgage taken out in 2021 pays a much higher rate today. Salaries have increased, but so have expenses: energy, food, services. If a shock occurs (a temporary loss of income, an illness), the family does not immediately become insolvent, but becomes vulnerable.

In NBR terms: a segment sensitive to interest and inflation.

What the National Bank actually says through the survey published on Thursday: there is still no crisis in Romania, but no economic comfort zone.

The banking system remains capitalized and liquid, and banks have stood the test of recent years relatively well. The message is different: Romania enters 2026 with an accumulation of risks.

And in such a context, you don't need a huge shock for problems to arise. A moderate shock is enough.

The 3 simple signals to watch in 2026

The budget deficit and the way the state finances it, the evolution of interest rates and the pressure on borrowers and insolvencies and late payments in the economy – these are the things to watch this year.

The BNR survey can be translated simply: Romania works. But it operates on a set of fragile equilibria, and the risks are sufficiently concentrated that a shock has knock-on effects. In other words: this is not the time to panic, but rather to be fiscally and economically disciplined.