Talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi will demonstrate whether Putin is ready for peace
Today, February 4, a new round of trilateral negotiations begins in Abu Dhabi, under the mediation of the United States, on stopping the war in Ukraine. For the first time in nearly four years of a full-scale invasion, these talks could provide a concrete indication of whether Vladimir Putin is willing to make the leap from stalling tactics to real peace — or whether we are once again witnessing a carefully orchestrated diplomatic sham.
Peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi/PHOTO: EPA/EFE
The Ukrainian delegation arrived in the United Arab Emirates, where trilateral negotiations in the Ukraine-Russia-USA format are scheduled for today and tomorrow. A source familiar with the negotiations told “Sighs” about the arrival of the Ukrainians in Abu Dhabi. At the talks in Abu Dhabi, the Ukrainian side will be represented by the head of the “Servant of the People” formation, David Arahamia, the head of the presidential office, Kirilo Budanov, and the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov. The US will be represented in the UAE by Trump's special representative to the United States, Steve Witkoff, and the US president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Russia will be represented by the military: the head of the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff, Igor Kostiukov, and the military intelligence officer, Aleksander Zorin.
According to Politico analyst Jamie Dettmer, this round differs from previous ones by a subtle but significant change in tone. Sources close to the negotiations say that both the Ukrainian and Russian delegations would be “more constructive”. A term often used and often emptied of content, but which, this time, seems to have a more solid foundation.
A Republican foreign policy expert, involved in consulting the Ukrainian side, describes the transition without management: the negotiations no longer resemble “pulling a tooth without anesthesia.” If previously reports of “constructive talks” caused irritation, now there is a feeling – cautious – that Moscow is taking the process more seriously.
No “historical causes”, with technical files
The change is not one of ideological substance, but of form and method. A former Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirms that the atmosphere at the negotiating table is different. Russian officials — including the head of military intelligence, Igor Kostiukov, and GRU officer Aleksandr Zorin — no longer obsessively repeat the Kremlin's mantra about the “deep causes” of the war, as Vladimir Putin or Sergei Lavrov do.
Instead of propagandistic discourse, a technical, cold, almost bureaucratic approach appears. The Russians “work professionally”, go into details and discuss concrete parameters. Not because they have suddenly become pacifists, but because the stakes have changed.
Europe, the factor pressing the Kremlin
The same source suggests that Moscow's new stance could be influenced by how Europe is beginning to take its own security seriously. The increase in arms production, the strengthening of military capabilities and attempts to reduce strategic dependence on the US have not gone unnoticed by the Kremlin.
A prolonged war fuels this transformation. A peace—even a fragile one—could hold it back. And for Moscow, weakening the European rearmament drive is as important a strategic objective as any territorial gain.
Time gained or peace lost?
Not all observers are convinced that Putin is playing fair. Australian Reserve General Mick Ryan warns that the negotiations could simply be a time-buying tool, especially in the relationship with Donald Trump.
For the Kremlin leader, a peace that cannot be sold domestically as a “victory” is a major problem. The domestic political cost of a real compromise could be greater than the external benefits.
Here, in fact, lies the crux of the matter: not whether Putin participates in the negotiations, but whether he is willing to accept an outcome that does not confirm the imperial narrative constructed for years.
The moment of truth
Jamie Dettmer concludes that this very round of negotiations will show whether the Kremlin is ready to move from feigning diplomacy to a real commitment to peace.
Until then, caution remains the only rational position. Because in dealing with Putin's Russia, calm tone and technical language are not evidence of good faith, but often the signs of a cold, calculated strategy – where peace is only an option and time, always, a weapon.
