Alarm signal from JP Morgan: Romania borrows record amounts. In 2024, it borrowed more than Saudi Arabia, which is the champion

Romania's dependence on money borrowed from foreign markets is extremely highdrew the attention of Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, managing director at JP Morgan.

Saudi Arabia borrows very large amounts from foreign markets, but in 2024 it was overtaken by Romania in this regard, said economist JP Morgan.

“No one has lent such an amount before”

“I'm going to give you some figures, although I didn't want to. Speaking of dependence on the foreign market, Romania borrowed about 19 billion euros in 2024. It's practically the largest loan of all emerging countries – no one has borrowed such an amount. In 2025, Romania borrowed 18 billion euros, much more than Poland or Turkey. In 2024, we borrowed more than Saudi Arabia, which they borrow very large amounts”, explained Chidesciuc.

He is of the opinion that Romania clearly has a problem with the fiscal deficit, which also led to the current account deficit. “Therefore, this fiscal problem needs to be resolved. The government is moving in this direction, but more is needed,” the JP Morgan banker believes.

The JP Morgan representative made these statements at the 2026 edition of the CFA Forecast Dinner, an event that marks 20 years since the launch in Romania and 25 years of activity of the CFA Romania Association, the organization of investment professionals in Romania, with the theme “Romania's strategic direction for the next 10 years”.

“Romania is approaching a sensitive threshold”

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc is not the only economist who warned about Romania's public debt.

The chief economist of ING Romania, Valentin Tătaru, says, in an analysis sent to HotNews, that Romania is approaching a sensitive threshold: in 2026, public debt will exceed 60% of GDP. This means, in short, that the state ended up borrowing too much compared to what the economy produces, he explains. From this moment on, there is no room for procrastination: the budget must be put “on a diet” and fiscal discipline becomes essential.

For investors and rating agencies, Romania's problem is no longer “how quickly it catches up with the West”, but whether it manages to repair its finances. With weak budget revenues, rigid expenses and high borrowing needs, Romania's main risk is the lack of fiscal rigor, according to the opinion of the chief economist of ING Romania.

Why 2026 is a key year

Valentin Tătaru says that the entry into 2026 marks an important change: the public debt no longer grows “out of inertia”, but enters an area where every budget decision matters.

The measures taken in 2025 – tax increases, spending caps – were not optional. They were mathematically necessary, Tătaru believes. Without them, Romania's debt would have quickly gotten out of control.

For years, Romania benefited from an advantage: the economy grew faster than the cost of loans. Thus, the state could run deficits without the debt exploding.

However, this balance was broken after the pandemic. Very large deficits (over 9% of GDP in 2024) and high interest rates have completely changed the situation.

The rating agencies – writes the chief economist of ING Bank – now see two great vulnerabilities:

• Difficult expenses to reduce
  The debt grew mainly from wages, pensions and social benefits, not from investments that would bring income in the future. In other words, the state borrowed for consumption, not for development.
• Very low budget revenues
  Romania collects few taxes compared to other EU countries. Even if the debt seems “reasonable” relative to GDP, relative to real state revenues it becomes much more difficult to sustain.

“For this reason, the debt can no longer be ignored. Going over 60% of GDP means tighter supervision and much less freedom to react to shocks,” says the ING official.

What's next for Romania's rating

An improvement in the rating is unlikely in the coming years. The real objective is to avoid relegation to “junk”.

The rating agencies will look at only one thing: if the reduction of the deficit is serious and stable, regardless of the electoral cycles, Tataru writes in his analysis. Interest costs will exceed 3% of GDP, which will severely limit the freedom of any future government.

Romania has moved from a story about “recovering the gaps” to one about repairing public finances. Exceeding the threshold of 60% of GDP forced difficult but inevitable decisions.

For investors, everything now comes down to a simple question: will the state continue fiscal discipline or succumb to short-term temptations? The cost of debt, the country's rating and economic stability in the coming years depend on this answer, ING Bank's analysis shows.