Russia is expanding its military bases near Finland. ISW warns of possible preparations for a conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near its border with Finland, actions that could indicate preparations for a potential conflict with NATO, according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland. PHOTO: AFP
Finnish public broadcaster Yle published satellite images taken between June 2024 and October 2025 showing active construction work at the Russian Rybka military base in Petrozavodsk, Karelia region. It is located approximately 175 kilometers from the border with Finland.
According to Yle, the garrison area, heavily used during the Soviet era, was largely abandoned in the early 2000s. Currently, the base is used by the 44th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District, and there is already a large airbase and a large military equipment depot operating here.
Military expert Marko Eklund, quoted by NEXTA, claims that up to 15,000 soldiers could be deployed in the region. Also, around 80 fighter jets are stationed at the Besovets air base, located about 12 kilometers from Petrozavodsk, including modern Su-35S models, but also older Su-27 aircraft. In addition, the area houses several thousand armored vehicles, trucks and artillery systems, most of them of Soviet origin.
Satellite images from May and August 2025 also indicate the construction of a new military city in Kandalaksha, Murmansk Region, about 115 kilometers from the border with Finland, RBC Ukraine reports. This is the Lupche-Savino garrison, the construction of which was started in the winter of 2024–2025 and which is intended for the new artillery and engineer brigades.
ISW recalls that it previously reported the expansion of Russian military infrastructure along the border with Finland. In 2024, Russia restructured the Western Military District, creating the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts, a decision considered to strengthen strategic command in the northern direction and counter NATO. In this context, the 44th Army Corps was also formed.
Movements near the border with Finland. ISW PHOTO
“Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have directly threatened Finland, including by using language that Russia has used to falsely justify Ukraine's invasion of Finland,” is shown in the ISW report.
Movements near the border with Finland. ISW PHOTO
In September 2025, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated that Russia's threats target the entire Western world. According to ISW, Moscow is reorienting its economy towards a war regime, expanding weapons production and intensifying population mobilization, with the aim of being ready for a possible conflict with NATO by 2030.
Analysts of the institute warn that Russia has already entered the “phase zero” of preparing for a potential war with the North Atlantic Alliance and is stepping up its covert attacks against Europe. Satellite images show large-scale developments of military infrastructure, including fighter jet shelters, warehouses and field camps.
At the same time, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also launched threats against Finland.
