The Russian military doubled the pace of its advance into Ukraine in January. How soon can the entire Donbas fall

Russian troops accelerated their advance into Ukraine in January, capturing almost twice as much territory as last December, according to an AFP analysis based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in collaboration with the Critical Threats Project, two US think tanks.

Thus, the Russian army conquered 481 square kilometers in January, compared to 244 square kilometers the previous month, which represents one of the most significant advances recorded in a winter month since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022 and to date.

These advances are taking place while Ukraine is experiencing extremely cold temperatures, conditions that greatly complicate offensive operations.

In Donbas, the industrial and mining province in the east of the country claimed by Moscow, the Russian military now controls almost all of the Luhansk region and 83 percent of the territory of the Donetsk region.

In ongoing diplomatic negotiations, Russia is demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from areas of the Donetsk region still under its control, which Kiev has so far vehemently refused.

18 months

In January, as in previous months, most of the advance of Russian troops took place in other regions: in Dnipropetrovsk (center-east), where Russian forces entered in the summer of 2025, and in Zaporozhye (south), where they are now less than 30 kilometers from the regional capital.

The Russian army also made territorial gains in the Kharkiv region (northeast) and Sumî (north).

At the current pace, Russian forces would need another 18 months to fully conquer Donbass, a heavily fortified province, according to AFP calculations.

But, in a context of attrition of the current forces, the pace of advance can increase exponentially.

Russia, which launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, currently occupies 19.5% of Ukrainian territory. A third of this area was already under Russian or pro-Russian control as of 2014.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2026: https://t.co/10q8X7LuBP pic.twitter.com/ktV30KeTiR

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 31, 2026

These areas of conquered territories include areas controlled by Russia, according to Kiev and military observers, as well as those claimed by Moscow's military, even in their minimal but unconfirmed version.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the issue of territories is the main sticking point in the negotiations held since January in the United Arab Emirates, in the presence of the Americans.

The second round of trilateral negotiations

The second trilateral round on Ukraine, brokered by the United States, will begin on Wednesday in Abu Dhabi, the Kremlin confirmed on Monday.

“Indeed, the second round will take place on Wednesday and Thursday in Abu Dhabi,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced at his daily press conference.

Peskov explained that the trilateral meeting scheduled for Sunday, February 1, was postponed because the three sides needed to “coordinate their schedules.”

The postponement came after it was learned that the US chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, will not travel to Abu Dhabi, EFE and Agerpres agencies wrote.

Peskov also confirmed that Kremlin emissary Kirill Dmitriev met with US representatives in Florida over the weekend, but the talks focused on economic issues.

On Sunday, President Zelenski announced that the next trilateral talks will take place on February 4 and 5.

“Ukraine is ready for substantive talks and we are interested in ensuring that the outcome brings us closer to a real and dignified end to the war,” he wrote on social media.

According to the three parties, the first round was constructive, but the main sticking points remain the territorial issue and control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Zelenskiy has therefore stressed that the only way out of this impasse is a face-to-face meeting with Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, who has reiterated his invitation to his Ukrainian counterpart to come to Moscow to discuss peace in Ukraine, an offer Zelenskiy has refused.

An energy truce was also discussed in Abu Dhabi, which Russia would have maintained only until Sunday, February 1, as Kiev announced on Monday.