The assumption that cheaper fuels mean cheaper electricity is working less and less today – for the portal Gospodarska.pl, notes Marlena Stuglik, Commercial Solutions Manager at MET Polska.
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Emission allowance prices are crucial for energy prices
This is not a one-off deviation, but the result of a change in the sector's cost architecture. The focus has shifted from the price of raw materials to systemic and regulatory costs, including those resulting from climate policy. The CO₂ emission allowances market remains a key price driver: in December 2025, EUAs were approximately EUR 86/t, and in January 2026, approximately EUR 92/t. Even with cheaper fuels, the cost of generating energy in conventional units increases with the price of emissions, and in the pricing model based on the marginal price, the units closing the balance often set the price for the entire market.
At the end of 2025, the average price on the DAM was nearly PLN 467/MWh, which shows that cost pressure remains high despite the decline in fuel prices. Although the production of energy from wind and sun set new records, this did not translate into real relief for consumers. More and more often, energy from renewable energy sources was limited by technical barriers: network capacity, limited balancing possibilities, lack of storage facilities or limitations in the operation of controllable sources.
The importance of forecasts is growing
In practice, the system pays not only for energy, but also for its safe transport and balancing. Energy storage and flexibility in a broader sense (including DSR) become an element that organizes the system, limiting the costs of “finishing” the balance and reducing the market's sensitivity to sudden deviations. According to Gospodarska.pl, in July 2025 PSE joined the European PICASSO platform (aFRR), which in the first period increased the volatility of imbalanced prices and episodes of extreme values, including negative prices.
For companies and traders, the importance of forecasts, flexibility and portfolio quality is growing – in the new reality, profile predictability and the ability to react in real time become more important than MWh itself. An increasing part of the recipient's bill are costs independent of the current exchange: transmission, distribution and fees resulting from systemic mechanisms, such as the capacity market or support for renewable energy and cogeneration. In 2026, a higher renewable energy fee, a capacity fee and an unchanged cogeneration fee apply, which means that the total bill remains “stiff” even with a decline in energy exchange prices.
It is not fuel prices that decide today
Mechanisms mitigating variability and improving the predictability of energy costs are becoming increasingly important – both long-term PPA and CfD contracts, as well as systemic investments in networks, the development of flexibility and more efficient balancing markets. At the same time, there is an ongoing discussion in the EU about support, including CISAF, which raises hopes, but also concerns about unequal competition conditions and a real impact on the predictability of costs for recipients.
The year 2025 showed that the price of electricity is no longer a simple function of fuel prices – summarizes Gospodarska.pl. An increasing share of the cost is driven by CO₂ emissions, system constraints and maintaining network stability. As Gospodarska.pl emphasizes, in 2026 the stakes for market competitiveness will depend on whether the transformation will be supported by a network, flexibility and appropriate mechanisms, or whether it will perpetuate high costs and variability. Where the bill is not predictable, energy begins to resemble a lottery.
