Migration policy was supposed to be the key to the success of the American president. But after the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the streets of Minneapolis are seething with anger, and following a wave of protests, Donald Trump makes a political U-turn. “Oh my God, it's not going to be good,” warns one of the people close to the White House, anonymously.
The calculation that forced the Trump administration to change course is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, if the administration softens its maximalist stance on illegal immigration, it risks disappointing its staunch MAGA voter base at a time when Republicans cannot afford to lose support. On the other hand, if he doesn't, he risks alienating moderate Republicans, independent voters, young voters and Latinos who support the administration's immigration policies in theory but dislike the way they are implemented.
— I'm worried because if we lose the program, we're done – and people don't fully realize how serious this is. — Sean Spicer, former Trump spokesman, tells POLITICO. — When you have a two-seat majority in the House of Representatives or a two- or three-seat majority in the Senate, you're teetering on a knife's edge. Not seeing this is absurd.
For Trump, there was a defeat in the November midterm elections [midterm elections] means the last two years of his administration could prove to be a nightmare for the White House. Democrats will certainly seize the opportunity to have this time spent on investigations and likely impeachment proceedings rather than advancing the Republican agenda. And this is a situation that the presidential administration wants to avoid.
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As a result, Trump's greatest weapon, thanks to which he was able to celebrate his triumphs, is now becoming a liability. Internal divisions in the Republican Party and intensifying attacks by Democrats forced the White House to adopt a defensive stance, something that even the US president's close advisers did not expect. Some of Trump's allies, however, are putting a good face on the bad game, arguing that the Republican Party should not be afraid that its current strongest weapon will turn against the administration of the American leader. They blame the Democrats for the current situation in the party.
“This is the area where President Trump has been most successful,” explains Trump pollster John McLaughlin. — Republicans are getting defensive on an issue they shouldn't be doing.
Trump's team is taking a step back
POLITICO's latest public opinion poll highlights the delicate balance the administration must strike. It turns out that 1 in 5 voters who supported the president in 2024 say that Trump's mass deportation campaign is too aggressive, and more than 1 in 3 Republican voters say that although they support the goals of his mass deportation campaign, they do not approve of the way he is implementing it.
This week, the administration grappled with the political fallout from the killing of protester Alex Pretti. Even typically loyal Republicans criticized the president, with others calling for the removal of top administration officials, most notably Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. The White House toned down its tough rhetoric and Trump made personnel changes in the leadership of the Minneapolis operation, sending Border Patrol Chief Tom Homan to the state to ease tensions on the ground.
On Thursday, Homan told reporters that he had had “productive” conversations with state Democrats and local officials and that federal agents' actions would be more targeted in the future. He promised to stick to the administration's mission, but said he hoped to reduce Immigration and Customs Enforcement's presence in the city if federal officials gained access to state prisons.
The president “does not want to deal with the clashes between protesters and federal agents in Minnesota,” one close White House aide says anonymously in an interview with POLITICO. — If Trump were more invested in the outcome of this case, he would send in the National Guard. He would declare martial law. He would be more aggressive.
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson says the administration is always looking for the “most effective way” to implement what it sees as a mandate from voters to carry out mass deportations.
“Our priorities remain the same: we focus on violent criminals who are illegal immigrants while enforcing the law — anyone in the country illegally is subject to deportation,” he said, adding that this includes “the president's continued calls for local Democratic leaders to work with the administration to remove illegal murderers, rapists and pedophiles from their communities.”
Some Trump allies, concerned that aggressive tactics will alienate key swing voters in November, argue that Republicans need to focus on criminal arrests, public safety and the Trump administration's success in securing the southern border, which are more popular with voters.
Republicans have had enough. “Oh man, this isn't going to be good.”
But hardline immigration advocates in the Republican Party are increasingly outraged by the administration's actions this week, including an apparent willingness to compromise with Democrats on policies that increase oversight of federal immigration officers. They argue that the administration is paying too much attention to television coverage and the concerns of those who generously fund the Republican Party, and too little to the voters who reelected Trump.
The result of Trump's second term as president without real power was that he would pursue his goals regardless of pressure from consultants, pollsters and left-wing Republicans. This doesn't seem to be happening, which is disappointing
– says Mike Howell, president of the conservative group Oversight Project.
“I am amazed that CNN's reporting appears to have a greater influence on the White House's immigration enforcement agenda than the voting base that has supported Trump over the last decade,” he adds.
Still, some of the more radical supporters of the president's actions admit that the administration's spectacular actions in enforcing immigration regulations have revealed some weakness in the administration.
— A large, muscular show of force provokes too much confrontation, says an anonymous second person close to the White House. — Let's try to be more discreet, but let's deport the same number of people. Let's be a little more sneaky. Let's not show our strength and masculinity. There's an element of it that's cool, but why can't we be as discreet as possible and show up all over the state of Minnesota?
“We almost provoked a reaction,” the POLITICO source added. — I'm all for the smartest tactic as long as the end result is as many deportations as possible.
However, this person warns that any sign of disengagement could discourage the electoratewho is already concerned about the economic situation.
Our electorate is typically not wealthy and not doing well. He is struggling with difficulties. If you take away their immigration – if they don't believe that he [prezydent] he says seriously – this, oh man, won't be good
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.