The demography in Poland has been bad since yesterday. However, the latest data from the Central Statistical Office are worse than the weakest forecasts. In November 2025, only 17,000 were born in Poland. children, and the cumulative number of births for the last 12 months is 238.7 thousand. – and dropped below 240,000 for the first time. We were thus ahead of the Central Statistical Office's forecasts by several years, but there is nothing to be happy about.
Central Statistical Office's “Population forecast for 2023-2060” in the so-called In the low scenario, it assumed that in 2031 the number of births in Poland would amount to 236.8 thousand. kids. Meanwhile, this scenario is already being realized. In November 2025, only 17,000 were born in Poland. children, and the cumulative number of births for the last 12 months (December '24-November '25) is 238.7 thousand.
November brought the lowest monthly number of births in the “history of measurements” – only 17,000 were born. kids.
The number of births in the last 12 months dropped below 240,000 –
also for the first time in history.
According to the lowest forecasts of the Central Statistical Office from 2 years ago
this is how many births there were supposed to be in 2031. pic.twitter.com/O368xfSxt3— Marek Sobolewski (@Marek39556099) January 27, 2026
According to the forecasts of the Central Statistical Office, Poland's population will drop from the current over 37 million to approximately 36.6 million in 2030, 35.3 million in 2040, and in the longer term even to 33 million. However, “Population simulation until 2060 – experimental study” indicates that with extremely low fertility, the population may decrease even further, even to 28.4 million, which would mean a reduction of 24.3%. in relation to the population in 2024 And this scenario is becoming more and more likely.
MF: vthe results of the demographic forecast are at least disturbing
In turn, the latest forecast of the Ministry of Finance prepared for ZUS shows that by 2080 Poland's population will shrink by as many as 10 million people, dropping to 27.2 million.
Demographic processes, through their strong, direct impact on the number of retirees and insured persons, have a significant impact on the financial situation of the pension fund. The results of the demographic forecast should be considered at least disturbing in this context – it was noted.
ZUS, on the other hand, bounces the ball and assures that “despite unfavorable demographic changes, the Polish pension system will remain stable until 2080.” As added, the biggest challenge will be 2060, when the number of retirees in Poland will reach a record 10.6 million people.
“If we look at the efficiency of the system in a 50-year perspective, it is balancing. The decline in efficiency in the current decade is due, among others, to the retirement of people from the post-war boom, and the improvement in efficiency in the 1930s will result from the retirement of people from the demographic decline of the 1960s. In the next decades, the efficiency will increase due to the retirement of people from the demographic decline at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries and the extinction of people from the baby boom of the 1980s. The efficiency of the system is also influenced by the transition from the defined benefit system to the defined contribution system,” said Zbigniew Derdziuk, president of ZUS, in the middle of last year.
The fertility rate in Poland is at the lowest level in the history of research
In 2024, the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) for the entire country was 1.099. This is the lowest level in the history of this research. An even more gloomy picture emerges from detailed data from the Central Statistical Office. In 90 out of 380 poviats, including cities with poviat rights, the fertility rate is already below 1. The worst situation is in Sopot, where the TFR is only 0.57 – lower than in South Korea, which ranks last among OECD countries in this respect – “Puls Biznesu” recently reported.
According to the vice-chairman of the Government Population Council, prof. Elżbieta Gołata, the low fertility rate is influenced by, among others, lack of a sense of security and uncertainty on the labor market, but other reasons are also important, e.g. health, care for pregnant and postpartum women, diagnosis and treatment of infertility, mental health of young people and the impact of abortion law. However, the report “Housing needs and aspirations of Poles” shows, among other things, that the lack of stable housing affects life choices related to having children.
Will immigrants save us?
According to Marcin Piątkowski, prof. Kozminski University, it will be very difficult for Poland to increase the fertility rate. “Practically no one among developed countries has managed to do this. Therefore, I believe that the key solution for Poland is to have a transparent immigration policy,” the economist noted.
And here we come to another problem. According to PKO BP economists, “migration may alleviate the shortcomings related to the growing demographic gap in Poland, but none of the realistic migration scenarios is high enough to maintain labor supply at the current level. Our simulations indicate that to achieve this, nearly 1 million migrants would have to flow to Poland (on a net basis) over the course of a decade, and over 2.3 million migrants in total over the next two decades.”
A demographic tsunami is approaching the housing market. Who will gain and who will lose?
In the next dozen or so years, the dynamically changing demographic structure of society will largely shape the Polish housing market. We're looking at what might happen.
EBRD: Older voters are increasingly shaping policy priorities
“Fewer births, more retirees and fewer workers to shoulder the fiscal burden of pensions and health care have prompted warnings about the economic consequences of an aging population.” – writes Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist of the EBRD, in the foreword of the report “The Brave Old World”..
On the other hand, some argue that artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will soon take over almost all economically important activities, making demographic concerns irrelevant. The reality is more complex. New technologies hold promise, but they will not fully compensate for the shrinking workforce. Demographic pressures are strong and their effects will have a huge impact on economic growth and living standards if they are not addressed through smart and proactive policies, adds Javorcik.
“As societies age, so do electorates and political leaders. Older voters, with higher voter turnout, increasingly shape political priorities, often favoring health care, pensions and, in some contexts, military spending, while showing less support for immigration, education and risk-taking in the pursuit of economic growth,” it said.
Prepared by JM
