4 years of lives lost in war. The front absorbed a total number of soldiers equivalent to two-thirds of the population of Kiev

After nearly four years of heavy fighting, the total number of military casualties, including soldiers killed, wounded or missing, is approaching a grim threshold.

The number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed, wounded or missing in the conflict in Ukraine is on track to reach two million by this spring, according to a new study, a shocking toll as Russia's assault on its neighbor continues, writes The New York Times.

The research, published on Tuesday, January 27, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, shows that nearly 1.2 million Russian soldiers and nearly 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, wounded or are missing. This puts the combined total number of casualties on both sides at nearly 1.8 million.

Throughout the conflict, the number of casualties has been difficult to ascertain, as Russia is believed to systematically underestimate the number of dead and wounded, and Ukraine does not release official figures. The CSIS study relied, among other sources, on estimates from the Washington and London governments.

This toll paints a grim picture of Russia's anemic progress in Ukraine, with Russian troops advancing in some places by around 15-70 meters per day.

As of January 2024, the Russian military captured 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and currently occupies about 20 percent of the country.

The balance sheet also indicates the extent of the losses suffered by Ukraine. By comparison, in 2020, the capital city of Kyiv – the largest city in Ukraine – had approximately 3 million inhabitants.

Basically, the number of Ukrainian military casualties shows that during the four years of war, Ukraine lost a total number equivalent to 20% of the population of Kyiv.

Or, taken in total, the 1.8 million people (Russian and Ukrainian soldiers) represent almost a third of the population of the Ukrainian capital before the start of the conflict.

As of January 2024, the Russian military captured 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and currently occupies about 20 percent of the country.

Changes in tactics and a first in negotiations

As freezing winter temperatures have slowed troop movements for both sides, Russia has made significant advances in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine, and Moscow's troops continue to try to gain full control of Donbas.

The tactics of both sides have changed. Due to the constant presence of drones in the sky, Russia has partially abandoned major heavy armored movements in favor of small groups of soldiers on motorcycles or on foot to try to infiltrate Ukrainian defensive lines in the hope that they will be less visible on the drones' “radar”.

Ukrainian officers in charge of the drones, in turn, monitor footprints and tire tracks in the snow, looking to spot the movement of Russian troops.

The latest toll came after talks between Russian, Ukrainian and American officials – the first such talks in trilateral format – ended on a rare positive note on Saturday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the negotiations had made progress and that Ukraine was ready to hold new meetings. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that talks would resume next week.

The United States and Ukraine have reached agreement on much of a peace plan that has been revised several times. But it remains unclear whether Moscow will agree to any part of the plan, especially since all public signals so far indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is pushing for the maximalist demand that Ukraine cede all of Donbas (the Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

The losses recorded by each party

Meanwhile, the number of victims continues to rise. CSIS has estimated the death toll of Russian troops at nearly 325,000 since President Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022.

“No major power has suffered anywhere near as many casualties or deaths since World War II,” notes the study published by CSIS.

In 2025 alone, there were approximately 415,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded, an average of nearly 35,000 per month. Last week, US President Donald Trump claimed that nearly 26,000 soldiers were dying in Ukraine every month.

The study also estimated that between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the war.

The Russians outnumber the Ukrainians on the battlefield – by almost three to one – and Russia has a larger population from which to fill its military ranks. Ukraine is losing a larger part of its smaller army.

Russia has maintained its troop levels despite the high casualties, carrying out its first mobilization since the end of World War II and enlisting prisoners and foreign nationals. It also paid large financial bonuses to new recruits.

Up to 15,000 North Korean soldiers have been fighting alongside the Russians, mainly in western Russia's Kursk region, after the Ukrainian army staged a daring incursion and captured territory there. South Korean intelligence officials and analysts say at least several hundred North Korean soldiers are believed to have been killed during the war so far.

Russia, “in serious decline as a major power”

The war also affected Russia's economy, according to Seth G. Jones, one of the study's authors.

Russia's war economy is “under increasing pressure,” the study notes, “with output shrinking, growth slowing to 0.6 percent in 2025 and no globally competitive technology firms to contribute to long-term productivity growth.”

The high number of casualties, the slow pace of the Russian military's territorial advance and the economic losses are a clear indication that Russia is in decline, Jones said.

“Russia's poor performance on the battlefield in Ukraine and declining economic productivity indicate that Russia is in serious decline as a major power,” he believes.

“Although Russia still has nuclear weapons and a large army, it is no longer a great power in most categories – military, economic or scientific and technological,” the researcher added.

Negotiations, considered “just a show”

In the opinion of several Ukrainians, the negotiations held over the weekend in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, within the framework of the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-USA, were rather a show, as Moscow continued to bombard Ukraine massively, and the Kremlin demonstrated once again that it does not want peace, AFP and Agerpres previously wrote.

“Peace efforts? A trilateral meeting in the Emirates? Diplomacy? For Ukrainians, it was just another night of Russian terror,” summed up Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sibiga on Saturday morning.

In the night from Friday to Saturday, Russia launched 370 drones and 27 missiles at Ukraine.

In a sign of mistrust of Moscow, Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday expressed hope that these talks, which are due to resume on Sunday, will not be used “cynically” by Moscow “to delay further measures aimed at putting pressure on Russia”.

In parallel with the negotiations, the first between Kiev and Moscow regarding the American peace plan, Russia rejects any kind of truce.

Zelensky reiterated that Russia must be forced to conduct real negotiations, under the pressure of severe sanctions and increased military support for Kiev. His skepticism about Moscow's willingness to negotiate is widely shared in Ukraine.

“It's just a show for the eyes of the world. Russia will not sign any agreement. We have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” said Pavlo, a Kiev resident.

“These negotiations do not give us any hope for a positive outcome. Our only hope is the resistance of our people,” said another resident of the Ukrainian capital, Irina Beregovaia, 48.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the two camps have held several rounds of direct and indirect talks, either in Istanbul, in Saudi Arabia, in Switzerland or Belarus, without reaching an end to this conflict, the bloodiest in Europe after the Second World War.