The Polish electricity sector started 2026 with a bang. In recent weeks, information has spread widely about the historically highest demand for power, which occurred on January 9 at 11.45 amounted to 29.2 GW gross and 27.6 GW net (the difference between these values corresponds to the power plant's own needs). The previous time the highest demand occurred exactly two years earlier, i.e. on January 9, 2024, when it amounted to 28.6 GW gross.
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Five days later, another record occurred, this time related to energy production. January 14 at At 11.00, the generation level of domestic sources was 30.5 GW gross and 28.9 GW net. Almost 60 percent generation came from power plants burning hard coal and lignite, and just over 21 percent from renewable sources. Less than 14 percent generation was provided by gas sources.
As Grzegorz Onichimowski, president of the transmission system operator, i.e. Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, commented, it was the first case in which power generation in Poland reached the “front three”, i.e. exceeded 30 GW. The demand for power was then 26.6 GW net, and we exported approximately 2.3 GW outside Poland.
Read also: Milestones in the energy sector have been exceeded. PSE reported new data
280 MW more with one stage less
Analysts and commentators agree that the increase in demand and production is related to current weather conditions. When it's cold, heating needs simply increase, and both local heat and power plants, where electricity is a “side effect” of heat production, and sources operating in individual households, primarily heat pumps, increase their work.
Wojciech Milewski, energy market expert and Head of Origination at Engie Polska, points out that on working days in winter, a 1-degree Celsius drop in the average daily temperature translated into approximately a 280 MW increase in the maximum power demand. — This relationship is shown by the combined analysis of data from the Polish Power Grids and the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – he explains.
He adds that high demand in winter is also visible on the gas market, which is widely used for heating.
— Both gas and electricity are used in the greatest amounts on the days with the lowest temperatures of the year. However, the demand for energy also increases on days with high temperatures, due to cooling used in households and industry, explains Milewski. Therefore, the expert predicts that after a cold winter, in the event of a hot summer, we can also expect summer records in demand in the power system.
Read also: Poles broke the record for demand for gas and electricity. “The system works stably”
What ensures security?
Are we prepared for such situations, and are there a sufficient number of sources and networks in the system with the appropriate capacity to provide energy even at times of high demand?
Fear of the specter of a blackout is a social emotion that echoes in the comments under information about January's records, as does the belief in the critical role of various technologies (usually coal), without which the system would immediately collapse. In reality, however, neither coal nor any other source in itself guarantees the security of energy supplies today – we owe it only to the functioning mixi.e. a combination of various working and balanced sources.
The PSE press office explains this in a comment for Business Insider. “The high level of generation is the result of the work of many types of sources in the system – both coal sources, which still play an important role, and gas sources, which operate at record levels, but renewable energy sources also make a significant contribution by reducing the use of fossil fuels,” the operator informs us.
“The system operates stably, generating units maintain availability, power reserves are sufficient – the continuity of electricity supplies and the operational security of the National Power System (National Power System – editor's note) are not at risk,” he adds.
Żerań Heat and Power Plant in Warsaw, January 16
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Andrzej Kulpita/East News / East News
How much renewable energy in winter?
As for renewable energy, wind power generation has been maintained at varying levels since the beginning of the year – in the first four days of January, their share was 30 or more than 30 percent. Production from the sun in still short days is necessarily low, although analysts of the Instrat Foundation noted a quarter of an hour on January 19, when photovoltaics was temporarily the largest source of energy in the country.
However, 10 days earlier, at the moment of record demand from 11.30 to 11.45, weather-dependent wind and solar sources contributed less than at other times of the same day.
In the first days of January, wind farms were responsible for over 30%. energy generation
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PRZEMEK SWIDERSKI/REPORTER / East News
— The share of renewable energy sources in covering the peak values of the national power demand was smaller (on average approx. 14.5%) than in the case of other intervals (approx. 21.7%). – points out Kamil Moskwik, energy market analyst. Of the less than approximately 36 GW installed in wind and solar, an average of 3.9 GW was in operation at that time – the power utilization factor was therefore approximately 10.6%.
When is the risk of blackout highest?
PSE also informs that the security of supply is today largely determined by the flexibility of the system – the ability to plan its operation based on various sources.
— When the national demand for power reached a record high on January 9, the surplus of available power over demand amounted to 15%. (according to PSE requirements, it should be at least 9%).) – explains Kamil Moskwik. So we had adequate “supply”.
In an interview with Business Insider, Wojciech Milewski confirms – we were safe during the historically highest January results. This does not mean, however, that our energy industry is free from all threats and we do not have to expect any dangerous moments.
— Contrary to appearances, it is not the cold winter, when many heat and power plants are operating, that is the most risky for the system. In fact, we are most exposed to a potential blackout around Novemberwhen it is not very cold yet, conventional sources are not prepared to bear a heavy load, heat and power plants are not fired up “to the max”, and there may be no wind or light for a long time – says the expert. The Polish energy sector will face a real “stress test” in the event of the shutdown of coal units, which will have to be replaced with other available sources.
Jaworzno Power Plant
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Karol Porwich/East News / East News
What energy sources are needed?
PSE also talks about it. “In the coming years, the key to the operational security of the National Power System is the available capacity, i.e. capacity that can be activated whenever consumers need electricity,” says the operator's vice-president, Konrad Purchała, in a comment sent to us.
The proposed details are not surprising – apart from further development of renewable energy sources and energy storage, the system will need flexible and reserve gas sources that will replace the oldest and unprofitable coal units. Their construction will be supported by the capacity market, which rewards available sources for their readiness to work. The future, however, is the atom.
Winter may affect the energy industry in one more way – difficult weather conditions potentially create a risk of network failure, which Wojciech Wrochna, government plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure and secretary of state at the Ministry of Energy, warns against in an interview for Business Insider that will soon be published. As Wrochna emphasizes, however, no such thing has happened so far and the networks are operating efficiently.
Another issue that deserves separate analysis is costs. As indicated by the consulting company Energy Solution, on January 13, the average energy price on the day-ahead market was over PLN 615/MWh, and on some days it exceeded over PLN 1,000. The obvious culprit is our still high-emissions and therefore tax-heavy mix.
