A member of the Monetary Policy Council Ludwik Kotecki sees 50 % chances of decreasing interest rates by the Council in October. In his opinion, by the end of 2025 there is a space for one more cut, by 25 PB. The Council will pay attention to the formation of base inflation and wage dynamics.
Kotecki, when asked about what chances of cutting interest rates by the MPC, said in October: “fifty out of fifty, or 50 % chance for cutting and 50 % that we will wait for November.”
“Whether it will be October or November this is, of course, the decision of the entire council, there will probably be a discussion. I still see a space for reduction of interest rates this year – probably at 25 PB, and rather one, no more” – Kotecki told PAP.
A member of the MPC has indicated that the more cautious approach of the council is still supported by increased base inflation.
“Why not more (cuts – PAP)? It seems that the base inflation is slightly increased, we still have not achieved this goal, i.e. 2.5 percent we have base inflation in August at 3.2 percent, CPI at 2.9 percent. This inflation does not go to the goal as fast as if we wanted, so we need to be cautious, do not hurry,” told PAP Biznes Kotecki.
He noted that for the MPC, wage dynamics will also be important.
“The factor that will probably still be taken into account in October by the council are wages. They go down in the trend when it comes to growth dynamics, but sometimes, in some months, they jump, sometimes it results from disposable factors, e.g. awards,” Kotecki told PAP.
“These factors speak for a little more cautious approach, which does not exclude cutting, but assumes not hurrying” – he added.
The August Statistical Office will publish the August pay data on Thursday, September 18.
In an interview with PAP Business, a member of the MPC was also accepted by the Sejm on the freezing of electricity prices for households in the fourth quarter of 2025. As he assessed, it allows the council to “sleep peacefully”.
“The freezing of energy prices actually changes the whole path of inflation from October (…) the path that the NBP showed, for example, in the July projection, you can reduce by 0.6 percentage points, because it is more or less the effect on the inflation of this freezing energy prices. It can be said that this allows – in my opinion – the council to sleep peacefully (…) The Sejm has accepted the act and the president with high probability No substantive reasons not to do it, “said a member of the MPC.
“What's more, there is a second information related to this, which has not yet become a body, but in a moment it will probably also happen – namely new tariffs that have come from January. People who are closer to this information suggest that the tariffs will not be higher than the levels that are today, i.e. frozen. he added.
Last week, the Minister of Energy Miłosz Motyk informed in the Sejm that the tariffs approved by the Energy Regulatory Office will be lower than the price of freezing at the level of PLN 500/MWh. The Ministry of Finance also expects that in 2026 the energy tariff for households will be below PLN 500/MWh.
Kotecki, asked what in his opinion, is the target level of interest rates next year, he said: “I think that additional (discounts about – PAP) 50 pb is calm. So let's say that 25 PB later this year and another 50 PB in the next one. In total it would be a cut by a total of 175 PB, counting from May this year.”
The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Council is scheduled for October 7-8.
Patrycja Sikora (PAP Biznes)
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