Gas reserves in Poland. This is whether it will be enough to withstand the frost and to also power Ukraine
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Ukrainian heating is partly based on gas from Poland. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Szmyhalanswering questions to the government in the Verkhovna Rada, said that Ukraine – where Russia has been attacking the energy and heating sectors for many months to break resistance – has fuel supplies for 20 days. How much gas does Poland provide it?
In 2025, Gaz-System transmitted 22.8 billion cubic meters via its network. gas, thanks to which 1.5 billion cubic meters improved the highest result so far from 2021. From this approx. 7 billion cubic meters energy was used. Export amounted to 2 billion cubic meters. and increased by 0.7 billion cubic meters. compared to the last maximum result – 1.3 billion cubic meters. from 2019 The main export direction last year was Ukraine, where as much as 99 percent went. selling gas outside Poland.
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This means that We provide gas to Ukraine, which constitutes 28 percent. demand of the Polish energy and heating industry. And on January 19th Gaz-System announced that it has been increasing capacity to Ukraine since February this year from 600 thousand cubic meters/h up to 720 thousand cubic meters/h How many reserves does Poland have and will we be able to afford to support Ukraine with supplies for a long time, given the frosty winter? And do other European countries have enough supplies to help too?
Gas stocks in Polish and European warehouses
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe in Brussels, a company founded by gas operators from European countries, Polish magazines January 18 this year were 73.1% filled. A year ago on January 18, the occupancy rate was 75.5%, and two years ago – 86.1%, which indicates that This year we are using gas from reserves much faster than in previous years. The warehouses were completely full on November 16 last year, and then the gas reserves gradually decreased.
After Portugal and Sweden, our 73.1 percent it's still the third largest percentage of warehouse fill in Europe. For comparison, Germany's warehouses are 42.8% full, the Czech Republic 57.3%, and Ukraine 22.3%. The average filling rate in the EU is 50.4%.
However, the filling level does not mean how long we are able to supply the economy with gas. After all, warehouses in Poland are not equal to warehouses in Germany. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany was preparing to become a Russian gas supply hub for all of Europe, so it built large units.
Ukraine has reserves that last longer than Poland
Last year According to Gaz-System data, we consumed approximately 230 TWh of gas in Poland, i.e. 21 billion cubic meters, of which the commercial, industrial and independent energy sectors used approximately 7 billion cubic meters. (December 2024 to November 2025 – Business Insider estimates based on ARE data). However, we have good supplies 26.5 TWh, that is, they could be enough for 11.5 percent. annual demand.
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In the case of Germany it is 11.9 percent. annual demand, so their level of reserves is very similar to the Polish one. But compared to other countries, we have relatively little of this gas in reserves. The Czech Republic and Slovakia maintain reserves of almost 40 percent. its annual consumption. And and Ukraine has gas reserves for longer than Poland.
Theoretically, this 11.5 percent there would be enough for one month and two weeks of demand. But in winter you need more gas, especially if it is a harsh winter.
Heat from gas is replacing heat from coal in Poland
In three winter months, with mild winters, it dropped below 40%. annual gas consumption. But in more severe winters, such as the current one, the rate rose to 48 percent. Consumption in the winter months can be three times higher than in the summer months. Supplies are therefore crucial, because in the event of a failure, homes will be cold and even companies will shut down. We use more and more gas for heating and less and less coal.
In the period January-November 2025 in the energy sector (professional, industrial and independent) 21.3% has already been produced from gas. heat compared to 17.6 percent a year earlier in the same period – according to our estimates based on ARE data. For 64.5 percent thermal power plants and hard coal heating plants were responsible for the heat (69.8% a year ago), for 12.5%. biomass (10.7% a year earlier), and for 1.8% lignite (1.9% a year earlier).
Heat from gas was produced by 42%. more year to yearwhich shows that the role of gas in heating, but also in the entire energy industry, is growing rapidly. In the case of hard coal, there was a decrease of 4.6 percent, and in the case of lignite, a decrease of 1.1 percent. An increase of 16% was recorded in biomass. For purposes other than electricity production, i.e. mainly as much as 30% was used for heat. gas consumption in the energy industry — results from the conversion of ARE data.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, editor of Business Insider Polska
