publication
2026-03-13 11:50
The second week of March brought a continuation of drastic increases in fuel prices in Poland. Diesel oil costs well over PLN 7/l, the highest since February 2023. In turn, gasoline prices reached their highest level in nearly two years.
In the second week of March, a liter of diesel oil at Polish stations cost on average PLN 7.64 and was PLN 65/l more expensive than a week ago – according to BM Reflex data. This is the highest average retail price of this fuel in over three years. Only since the beginning of March, diesel prices have increased by PLN 1.66/l. This is the largest scale of increases since March '22, when Russia attacked Ukraine.
Unleaded 95 petrol was filled at an average price of PLN 6.53/l, which is PLN 0.28/l more expensive than a week ago and the most expensive since May 2024. In the case of Pb95, since the Israeli-American attack on Iran, the average price has increased by 80 gr/l. Autogas was filled at an average price of PLN 3.17/l, which is 20 groszy more expensive than a week ago. And the most expensive in a year.
In this way, the fuel shock at Polish stations became a fact. It is a derivative of the sudden increase in global prices of crude oil and finished fuels resulting from the war with Iran and the country's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which every fifth barrel of oil extracted in the world flowed until March.
As a result, the prices of ready-made fuels also increased dramatically. On Friday morning, a gallon of gasoline on the New York Stock Exchange cost USD 2.95, while a month ago prices did not exceed USD 2/gallon. In turn, a ton of diesel oil in London was valued at over USD 1,100. This is lower than on Monday (almost USD 1,300/t), but still half as much as at the end of February.
Prices at refineries have started going up again
The oil shock was accompanied by a weakening of the Polish zloty and a strengthening of the US dollar. And since global fuel trade is settled in dollars, the increase in the USD/PLN exchange rate almost automatically translates into higher prices in domestic refineries. And this is immediately visible in the price lists.
On March 13, Orlen offered Eurouper 95 gasoline at PLN 5,401/m3, which after adding 23% VAT (excise duty, fuel surcharge and other para-taxes are already included in wholesale prices) gives PLN 6.64/l. That is 11 gr/l above the average retail price this week. This means that petrol prices should become even more expensive at most stations in the coming days.
The same applies to diesel fuel. Even if Orlen stations would give up the retail margin for some time, most distributors currently sell this fuel at a loss. In the Friday price list of the Płock concern, Ekodiesel diesel oil cost PLN 6,399/m3, which after vating gives approximately PLN 7.87/l. With a standard retail margin (of the order of PLN 20-25/l), this would imply an increase in prices at gas stations to over PLN 8/l. This may not happen, but further increases of PLN 20-30/l are most likely.
The only way to stop the increase in fuel prices in Poland would be a permanent or temporary reduction in tax rates. Let us remember that from every liter of gasoline or diesel oil purchased, over 50% goes to the state. Without paying tribute to the government, even at very high stock exchange prices, we could fill up with Pb95 petrol at approx. PLN 3.35/l, diesel at approx. PLN 4.50/l, and autogas at approx. PLN 2.20/l. The difference between the rates on pylons and the above amounts remains on the sticky fingers of the tax office.
