A surprising turn of events on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Investors are watching Trump's moves with concern
Tuesday's trading on the WSE was marked by supply dominating in the first half of the day. In turn, in the second part of the session we saw the stock market indices turn north. WIG20 ended in positive territory as one of the few major benchmarks in Europe. The Americans returned to trading after a day's break, but the red color showed investors' nervousness towards further incomprehensible actions of Donald Trump, who is ostentatiously turning his back on his allies.
At the close of the session, WIG20 was at a neutral level, but due to a depreciation of almost 1.6%. as it was seen on the chart before noon, the sessions should be credited to the bulls' account. The index was lifted mainly by the banking sector (0.39%), but the return was also observed in other flagship companies, which may suggest the extensive entry of foreign capital, which used the vicinity of this year's lows on WIG20 to make purchases.
It is difficult to find motives for such behavior in news agency messages, especially in the behavior of the core markets, where, due to the growing tensions between Europe and the USA, the indices glowed red both in Frankfurt, Paris and London, as well as in New York, where investors, after a slow Monday, returned to trading, or rather to sell. At the end of trading in Warsaw, the S&P500 and Nasdaq lost 1.1 percent, respectively. and 1.3 percent facing the specter of the collapse of the EU-US trade agreement.
“What we are waiting for tomorrow, i.e. the speech of US President Donald Trump in Davos, will be very helpful. We will see what kind of narrative he will express tomorrow on the issues of Greenland or additional tariffs on some European Union countries,” Mateusz Sutowicz, an economist at ING Bank Śląski, told PAP Biznes.
Ultimately, WIG20 rose above the mark in the second half of the session and ended the day with an increase of 0.04%. 0.1% lower was tWIG. Thanks to the increases from the second part of the session, mWIG40 fell only 0.41%. and sWIG80 returned 0.69 percent, although before noon the declines in both indices were much greater. The turnover on the broad market amounted to PLN 1.96 billion, of which PLN 1.57 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
The growth scenario applies, but a strong correction is scary
“The worst of the main indices in the short-term horizon is mWIG40. This index broke out of the short-term consolidation, and a rather long black candle appeared on the chart. WIG20, on the other hand, is somewhere around its lower consolidation limit,” Przemysław Smoliński, an analyst at BM PKO BP, told PAP Biznes.
It is difficult to answer the question whether Tuesday's declines are the beginning of a medium-term trend reversal or just a short-term move.
“It is difficult to answer this question at the moment. I would wait at least until the bottom of these consolidations breaks out. In the case of WIG20, I would pay attention to the support zone from 3,185 points to 3,210 points. If we went below this zone, we could already talk about the start of a slightly stronger medium-term correction. As long as we remain above, we can still hope that this increase in supply is just some short-term profit-taking,” he said. “It should be known literally in the next sessions whether we are starting medium-term corrective declines or not,” he added.
“In the long term, the upward scenario is still valid. This scenario would be confirmed by a breakout from consolidation, for WIG20 it is around 3,312 points. Closing above this level would indicate a continuation of the upward trend,” he said.
“At the moment, unfortunately, we are closer to declines than to increases. So, depending on which side we break out from, the movement will probably continue in the medium term,” added Przemysław Smoliński.
Energy against the grain, CD Projekt is losing its breath
The weakest link in blue chips was the energy sector, because PGE was the leader of the declines, losing 2.93%. CD Projekt shareholders had no reason to be happy. Shares of the game manufacturer fell by 2.31 percent, recording a second losing session in a row. However, it is worth remembering the broader context – in mid-January, the company's shares gained over 19% in a short period of time, so the current move is treated as a cooling of moods.
The Żabka Group (-1.65%) was also among the leaders of declines in WIG20. A total of 10 companies were below the line in WIG20. A bright spot among the largest companies was Orange Polska, which, thanks to a 4% increase, was the most growing company in the index.
Banks also showed relative strength – Alior gained 0.72%. Pekao went up by 0.68 percent, Santander by 0.59 percent, and PKO by 0.39 percent. In addition, clothing companies grew stronger – CCC (2.13%) and LPP (1.25%). Over 1 percent the price of Grupa Kęty also gained in WIG20 (1.48%).
The recommendation hit Cyfrowy Polsat, Grupa Azoty again lower
Cyfrowy Polsat caught attention in the mWIG40 index. The company's shares fell by 1.82%. (to PLN 13.45) after Wood & Company analysts lowered their recommendation to “sell”, valuing the security at PLN 11.86.
Grupa Azoty (-3.97%) continued its black streak, reacting to the disastrous credit reports from the beginning of the week. The fact that the banks have made all liabilities arising from the loan agreement due and demanded from GA Polyolefins for their early repayment has no impact on the company's restructuring plan, said Andrzej Skolmowski, president of Grupa Azoty.
Enter Air flew, Wasko and Medinice flew away
Despite the general stagnation, several entities managed to surprise positively. Enter Air (3.67%) – the company boasted a new charter contract with Rainbow Tours for the 2026 and 2026/27 seasons. The value of the contract (approx. PLN 396 million) is 17%. higher than before. In turn, Medinice (25.53%), has been gaining for several days after the information that the company has submitted an application to introduce its cardiac surgery device to the American market. Wasko's share prices are rising for another day (22.40%), after the company received a contract for the modernization of LAN networks in Polish schools.
