The impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on the US economy. Production was about to get started
Economists were afraid of a decline in industrial processing in the US in December last year. by 0.2 percent compared to November, and forecasts for the entire industry, i.e. including construction, talked about a slight increase of 0.1%. It was also forecast that production capacity utilization would drop to 76%, which would indicate the ineffectiveness of Donald Trump's customs policy. Or that the stocks built up before the tariffs were introduced were so large that they lasted until December. However, the data turned out to be better than forecast.
Instead of a decline in industrial processing, it turned out that there was a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and 2.9%. year to year – said the Federal Reserve, which monitors these data. Including construction and the mining sector, the increase was 0.4%. mdm and 2 percent rdr.
Production dynamics in the USA, including construction, mining and public utilities (including energy)
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Macronext
In the case of manufacturing, it is not so much about growth in consumer goods, but more in business equipment (machinery, vehicles, computers and other tangible assets used in running a business). Here the dynamics was as much as 10.1 percent. year on year (+0.8% m/m)while in consumer goods only 0.7 percent. (+0.7% m/m).
The business sector experienced a decline in previous years, so the rebound is significant and may already indicate the impact of tariffs. Despite the growth, since 2017 there has been a decline in this segment of 4.3%.
The mining industry was the second largest contributor to overall growth. The monthly dynamics in December amounted to +0.2%, and the annual dynamics – +1.7%. This is the only industry apart from public utilities (including energy) that has not recorded a decline since 2017, but is growing by as much as 21.9%.
As a result percentage of production capacity utilization in the entire industry, instead of falling as forecast to 76%. with 76.1 percent in November, then increased to 76.3 percent This is the highest rate since July 2025. The lowest level was in 2009 (66.5%).
U.S. production capacity utilization
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Macronext
This July is not accidental, because from August customs duties were introduced for the whole world, so importers imported goods until July to be on time. Warehouses, as can be seen from the level of production capacity utilization, are slowly starting to empty.
Year by year, the highest increase in power utilization was observed in the energy sector, which also confirms that the demand for electricity has increased.
