Inflation in March 2025 did not exceed 5%. What went up the most?

The Central Statistical Office confirmed preliminary estimates, which showed that CPI inflation in Poland stabilized just below 5%. Today, detailed data has been published, from which we learned how good goods were the fastest.

In March 2025, the price index of consumer goods and services (CPI) was 4.9% higher compared to the same month last year – according to the final data of the Central Statistical Office. According to experts, inflation will no longer jump this year. In terms of month, inflation was 0.2%.

Although forecasts assume in the following months a successive decrease in CPI inflation in Poland, it still persists at a level of nearly twice exceeding the 2.5 % goal of the National Bank of Poland. Economists assume that at the end of the year of CPI inflation may fall around 3%. However, in the first three months of 2025, CPI inflation was 4.9%.

For January, a reading of 5.3%was originally divided, which was then revised down to 4.9%. However, in December – before the annual change of inflationary basket – inflation in Poland was 4.8%. In November, as a result of disposable factors and the effects of the Database, CPI inflation decreased to 4.7%, a. In October it was 5.0%.

The average annual CPI inflation for 2024 was 3.6%according to the Central Statistical Office. This is still too much, but also clearly less than in previous years. The result for 2023 was 11.4%, in 2022 the average annual inflation was 14.4%, and in 2021 5.1%. The Ministry of Finance assumes that the average annual inflation in 2025 will be as much as 5% and that it will not fall to the 2.5-cylinder until the end of 2027.

Since November 2019, CPI inflation in Poland has been lasting above the 2.5 % NBP target. Over the previous 60 months, it was lower than 2.5%for 4 months, and for 18 months exceeded 10%. As a result, the inflationary goal was permanently exceeded both in medium and long terms. The average (geometric) CPI inflation for the last 5 years was 7.46%, for the last 10 years is 4.25%, and in 20 years it was at the level of 3.31%.

Services are more expensive than goods

The CSO announced that in March 2025 the services were on average 6.4% more expensive than a year ago, and the prices of goods went up by 4.4%. The strongest price increase – by as much as 10.9% yard – was recorded in the category “use of an apartment and energy carriers”. This is a consequence of last year's partial market and gas prices, which in the new tariffs were several dozen percent more expensive than before.

Food and non -alcoholic drinks were still very more expensive, where GUS noted increases by 6.7% yaws (and 0.3% MDM). This is largely the result of an increase in VAT rates from April 2024. The effects of zero VAT on food will probably be visible in CPI data until the third quarter.

There were tobacco products and alcoholic beverages by 5.8% more expensive than a year ago. In this case, such a strong increase in prices is “due” to an increase in excise duty rates – because only from the beginning of 2025 pipes and alcohol increased by 3.8%. High dynamics of the price of many services was still bothering us. In the “Education” category there were increases by 8.2% per annum. Price lists in restaurants and hotels went up by 6.1% yard, including as much as 1.6% from the beginning of the year and by 0.4% relative to February. The same applies to the “Health” category, which costs us an average of 5.5% more than a year ago and already 2.2% more than in December. Here you can still see a definite and not too weakening price pressure.

Traditionally, in GUS statistics, we saw a decrease in clothing and footwear prices (by 1.3% yard), which, however, was 3.4% more expensive than in February. In turn, CPI inflation above 5% did not see only because the world has significantly caught up with fuels. Thanks to this, the Central Statistical Office could record a drop in prices by a 3.6% yard in the “Transport” category. Added to this, there were increases in the scale of 3.9% yard in the case of recreation and culture, 2.6% in the “communications” category and by 2.4% for “other goods and services”.

KK

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