Despite the Trump administration's rhetoric about its readiness to intervene militarily, the geopolitical reality is emerging much more complex than public statements suggest – says Dr. Wojciech Kwiatkowski. The United States' strategy towards the Islamic Republic will therefore be more intricate and cautious than it might seem.
China instead of Iran
According to Dr. Wojciech Kwiatkowski, an Americanist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University, the key to understanding American policy towards Iran is the perspective of Chinese competition. — Everything that is happening in the United States now, what Trump is implementing, is a policy of fighting China at every level – says the expert in the Onet Morning Finansowo program.
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Iran is an opportunity for America to block Beijing's second strategic position in the Middle East. Previously, the Trump administration had already achieved this goal in the case of Venezuela. — Venezuela is the Western hemisphere, but in general it was a gas station for China, which it had been manufacturing for itself for many years. – says Dr. Kwiatkowski. — Today this station is under United States control or is expected to be under United States control. The same may happen with Iran, he estimates.
Iran – too large a country, too complex a structure
As he adds, the situation here is much more difficult for Washington, and an invasion is out of the question. Direct confrontation would be the last resort.
— It is one thing to bomb some targets and another thing to kidnap the political elite. If we compare it with Venezuela, Caracas is somewhere else and Tehran is another – I mean the distance from the sea and from American aircraft carriers. And it's not like the Americans would be able to repeat such a maneuver, he says.
Kwiatkowski emphasizes that Iran is a country of over 90 million people with an entrenched, multi-layered security architecture that the Ayatollahs have built over decades. — This protection architecture is too complex. That's over a million people who simply live off this system. This is militarily insurmountable – emphasizes Dr. Kwiatkowski.
He added that even the earlier bombing of Iran by the US confirms this thesis. — An increasing number of experts began to believe that this had somehow been agreed upon in advance the Iranian side was warned that this bombing of the nuclear facility would take place – he said.
The doctor reminds that, the history of the last two decades remains a painful lesson for the United States in terms of significant interventions in the Middle East. Interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan cost trillions of dollars, led to human losses and weakened America's position in other regions of the world. – Americans are still licking their wounds after their interventions from 20 years ago – emphasizes the interlocutor. And this experience shapes the current calculation.
Wait and block strategy
According to the Americanist, despite the rhetoric, The US will adopt a more passive, point-based strategy. — I think that Americans are waiting for a collapse, for this political elite to escape from Iran to some other country – predicts.
Less visible actions are also key: blocking aid to Iran from China and Russia and trying to open information channels to ordinary Iranians. — They will want to provide ordinary Iranians with such a window to the world, to enable them to exchange information with people from outside, explains Dr. Kwiatkowski. According to him, taking Iran out of China's sphere of influence and liberalizing the regime is the maximum plan the United States could count on.
The second issue is related to information uncertainty. While the Iranian regime is effectively blocking the flow of information, experts are not even sure of the number of victims of the riots. Estimates range from thousands to twenty thousand.
No pro-American alternative
Another problem lies in the lack of a credible political alternative in the event of the collapse of the Tehran regime. — There is no coherent political group there that is very pro-American and that would want to reach an agreement with America after the fall of this regime, says Dr. Kwiatkowski.
This fundamentally differs the situation in Iran from the actions taken in other countries in the region. Dr. Kwiatkowski points out that America can dream of changes, but there is no one to rely on. Any intervention would have to take into account the creation of a political vacuum, which could be quickly filled by another geopolitical actor or internal factions whose goals could be contrary to Washington's interests.
An election year changes the calculation
Ultimately, much depends on the growing importance of the electoral calendar in the United States. Wojciech Kwiatkowski emphasizes that Donald Trump promised voters that American soldiers would not die in senseless wars on the other side of the world. Sending troops to Iran would be a direct betrayal of that promise.
— If even Trump's supporters saw something like this, it would be difficult for them to explain why we must in any sense bring peace to Iran by force, why we care about the democratization of this country? – concludes Dr. Kwiatkowski.
The role of Israel – goals not always consistent with those of the US
Kwiatkowski reminds that Israel's activity may also be important. The Jewish state has consistently eliminated key figures in Iran's military and scientific hierarchy. The killings of Israeli special forces are not limited to generals or military commanders – they target scientists, physicists and chemists involved in Iran's nuclear program.
— Israel has its own goals in this regard. They may differ in some respects from the interests of the United States – emphasizes Dr. Kwiatkowski. For the United States, the priority is to weaken the regime overall. For Israel, however, people with knowledge about building nuclear weapons are critical. Scientists were the targets of Israeli intelligence last year.
The entire conversation is available here:
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