The increase in Polish GDP will be 3.2%. in 2026, and not 3%, as previously forecast, the World Bank announced on Tuesday in its latest forecasts. Analysts also increased the estimate of Poland's economic growth in 2025 by 0.1 percentage point, to 3.3%. At the same time, the World Bank did not change the economic growth forecast for our country for 2027. It will remain at 2.9%.
World Bank economists also estimate that growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) has slowed to 2.4% in 2025. This is mainly reflected in private consumption, especially in Russia, due to the “lagged effects of tighter monetary policy”. “Trade levels increased moderately in the first half of 2025, partly reflecting an acceleration in commodity transactions ahead of tariff increases. Growth was also supported by easing global financial conditions: narrowing treasury bond spreads and rising stock prices,” experts said.
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They pointed out that in the second half of last year, inflation in the region accelerated again after slowing down in the first half of the year. The median total and core inflation rates remained elevated, above pre-pandemic levels, and most countries exceeded central bank targets. Price pressure – according to the Bank's representatives – resulted largely from the increase in prices of food and municipal services, especially in Central Asia and Romania, while wage growth remained strong.
“Growth in the ECA region is expected to remain stable in 2026, supported by solid domestic demand supported by slowing inflation, improving financing conditions, increasing uptake of European Union funds and higher defense spending,” says the World Bank. Excluding Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, regional growth is expected to average 3.1 percent in 2026-27, it said, although with varying country trends.
At the same time, according to the forecast, overall inflation in the region is expected to gradually decline in 2026, among others. thanks to cheaper raw materials, but will still remain above central bank targets in most ECA economies. “While many economies plan fiscal consolidation in 2026-27, deficit reduction is likely to be moderate, with only a limited dampening effect on economic growth,” the report added.
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According to economists, the risks to growth prospects include a prolongation or intensification of the war in Ukraine, further escalation of global trade tensions and policy uncertainty, more persistent than expected inflation, more restrictive global financial conditions and more frequent and more severe extreme weather events.
