The Future Inflation Index dropped in Poland by 0.4 points in January, and most of its components suggest declines in inflation, according to a report by the Office of Investments and Economic Cycles.
“The components of the index are dominated by those that contribute to a further decline in inflation. Only two components: inflation expectations of consumers and inflation expectations of business managers contribute to an increase in inflation,” the report says.
Read also: One foot in the fire, the other in the ice. A surprising voice from the Monetary Policy Council
BIEC reports that disinflationary trends dominate in the real sphere of the Polish economy and in its immediate environment.
Raw materials are cheaper
Raw material prices on world markets have been stable for two years with a slight tendency to decline. The drop in prices mainly concerns energy raw materials, while food prices do not change significantly. Experts predict a continuation of these trends in 2026.
The relation of the Polish zloty to the euro and the US dollar also remains stable and the zloty is the strongest in almost three years, which makes imports cheaper.
Read also: The Central Statistical Office publishes the latest inflation data. This is how 2025 ends in terms of price increases
The current data on producer prices (PPI) do not show any pressure to increase prices. “Nevertheless, there are certain symptoms that managers of companies from the industrial processing sector increasingly have such intentions,” it was written.
BIEC indicates that inflation expectations of representatives of these companies are rising for the second month in a row. In turn, surveys on inflation expectations of household representatives also noted an increase in the percentage of people expecting price increases.
