“Apart from the US, no other country will be so deeply affected (…) the risk associated with a political revolution in the USA like Canada,” emphasized the New York-based company specializing in consultations and risk assessment.
“The long-term relationship with the US, based on constantly increasing economic integration and lasting security partnership, has become history,” wrote the “Top Risks 2026” report, recalling Prime Minister Mark Carney's statements about a “turning moment” in Canadian history.
“It will be a challenge for Ottawa and Canadian companies more broadly playing defense and attack at the same time: management [kontaktami — PAP] with an unpredictable and unreliable United States while defining new roles in an increasingly unstable world,” the authors warned.
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Why is Canada at risk of political revolution?
What are the implications of the changes in the U.S. for Canada?
What does the Eurasia Group report predict about Canada-US relations?
What problems might Canadian economic sectors face?
The report covers global risk. In the section regarding Canada, it is mentioned that it is continuous Donald Trump's actions to disable the system of control over the executive power and “transforming government machinery into weapons against political enemies.”
Eurasia Group experts emphasize that the calculations of stable ties with the US or alliances with American politicians are not just a thing of the past.
“Washington is currently changing according to the whims of one fickle man.”
“Canada-US relations will remain unusually personal and volatile companies exposed to potential retaliation. “Washington is currently changing depending on the whims of one fickle man and an administration committed to implementing a radically new vision of American governance,” the report emphasizes, warning that Canada and the Canadian economy may become a collateral damage of the turmoil in the US.
At the same time, Eurasia Group estimates that the existing free trade agreement, i.e. CUSMA (Canada – USA – Mexico), will not be effectively extended in 2026 and will rather remain in a “zombie” state, neither fully completed nor implemented after January this year. renegotiations.
In addition, “Trump dislikes Canada's tough, detail-oriented approach to trade negotiations.” Although in the long term, the report estimates that the “buy Canadian” policy and large infrastructure projects currently implemented by Ottawa will build the resilience of the Canadian economy, However, these are currently the sectors that will have problems.
In the economic context, the authors of the report characterize the current attitude of the White House administration as “state capitalism with American characteristics”, which puts companies in a dilemma whether to adapt to the new conditions. In turn, a return to the so-called The Monroe Doctrine, which Trump now calls the “Donroe Doctrine”, means a fundamental geopolitical change for Canada, and Prime Minister Carney will have to balance the problem of the current dependence on the US in defending Canadian sovereignty.
That is why, the report emphasizes, increasing Canadian defense capabilities in the Arctic and cooperation with European allies in NATO are so important. Canada must “show the United States that it can defend its own backyard.”
“Europe under siege”
At the same time, the report notes that countries such as France, Germany and Great Britain, which are Canada's main economic and defense partners have problems of their own, the authors of the report even talk about paralysis. The report specifies the weakness of European governments as the fourth risk on the list of the most important problems, i.e. “Europe under siege”.
The report warned of a “second front of Russia”, i.e Russia's hybrid attacks in Canada.
Eurasia Group is a global company specializing in risk assessment. Its founder, political scientist Ian Bremmer, was, among others, UN advisor on artificial intelligence and in 2024 presented a report on the risks related to AI.
