Turkey is emerging as the main guarantor of Ukraine's naval security after a possible armistice

Turkey is willing to take over the leadership of the naval component of a possible international security mechanism for Ukraine, in the event of a peace agreement with Russia, says Sinan Ülgen, director of Turkey's Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). Ankara could also contribute to the air component of such a force.

The Russian ship in the Bosphorus Strait/PHOTO: EPA/EFE

In an interview with the Ukrinform agency, the Turkish expert emphasized that this availability is natural, given Turkey's strategic position and its key role in the application of the Montreux Convention. “Turkey is ready to take the lead in the naval dimension of security guarantees. It is understandable, considering that we are applying the Montreux Convention,” Ülgen said. “At the same time, we are also willing to contribute to the air dimension through our air policing capabilities.”

The Montreux Convention, signed in 1936, gives Turkey control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, which connect the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea. This control extends not only to commercial traffic, but also to the transit of military ships, including those of NATO states and Russia. Turkey has been a member of the North Atlantic Alliance since 1952.

Ankara's geopolitical position places it in the immediate vicinity of the conflict in Ukraine

Last month, a Russian drone crashed in a rural area of ​​northwestern Turkey near the city of Izmit, south of the Black Sea. A second drone was discovered the next day in a field near the town of Balikesir, a few hours from Istanbul.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly warned against turning the Black Sea into a “confrontation zone” between Russia and Ukraine and recently offered to host direct talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. “Turkey is the only actor that can speak directly to both Putin and Zelenskiy while maintaining balanced diplomatic relations with Washington, Brussels, NATO and the UN,” Erdoğan said.

Regarding a possible deployment of Turkish ground troops on the territory of Ukraine, Sinan Ülgen states that, at the moment, there are no concrete discussions. “The negotiations are still unclear: who would be willing to participate, under what conditions and whether such a deployment would take place before or after a peace agreement. However, overall, Turkey is ready to contribute to the security guarantee package, mainly through the naval and air dimensions,” he explained.

The statements come in the context of the meeting in Paris, where Ukraine's allies in Europe and North America outlined the first elements of a security arrangement for the post-armistice period. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on this occasion that the end of the war and the establishment of a lasting peace are “closer than ever”.

Also in Paris, Britain and France signed a declaration of intent to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia, a gesture described by President Zelenski as “a huge step forward”.

However, the Ukrainian leader admitted that uncertainties remain about the firmness of Western commitments. “I want a very simple answer: yes, if there will be a new aggression, all partners will respond firmly. This is the question I ask everyone. So far, I have not received a clear and unequivocal answer,” Zelenskiy said.