publication
2026-01-09 14:30
December's payrolls not only turned out to be weaker than the market consensus, but in addition the results for the previous two months were revised down significantly. The only consolation is a deeper than expected decline in the unemployment rate in the US.
The number of jobs in non-farm payrolls in December 2025 was by 50 thousand higher than a month earlier
– reported the government Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This result was slightly weaker than the market consensus of PLN 60,000. Employment in the sector
private sector increased by only 37 thousand. full-time positions. In this case, an increase of 64 thousand was expected.
Although throughout 2025, the United States economy added 606,000. jobs, however, this was a much worse result than in previous years. For example, in 2024 the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors increased by over two million, and in 2023 by nearly 2.9 million.
As of May 2025, the world's largest economy will practically no longer generate new jobs. Last year's average was only 50.5 thousand. monthly, they overstate the results for the first four months of the year, when over one hundred thousand positions were added per month. At the same time, in June, August and October there was a decline in employment in non-agricultural sectors.
In addition, the BLS revised down employment statistics for the previous two months. The October loss in jobs was estimated at 173,000. compared to the decrease by 105 thousand published in December. The result for November was reduced from 64,000. up to 56 thousand In total, this subtracts 76 thousand. from the numbers originally reported.
It should also not be forgotten that due to the fall “shutdown” of the federal government, there were gaps and significant delays in the BLS data. We learned about September's “payrolls” with a considerable delay, and the statistics for October did not include information on the unemployment rate and professional activity of Americans. November's results were also delayed and showed a significant increase in unemployment.
However, in December the unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% (after revision from 4.6%) to 4.4%, thus falling from the highest level in nearly 5 years. In absolute numbers, this translated into a decrease in the number of unemployed people (i.e. people actively looking for work) by 278,000, while the number of employed people increased by 232,000. and an increase in the economically inactive population by 229,000. These are the results of an independent survey (LFS) used by the BLS to estimate the scale of unemployment.
The average hourly rate in December 2025 was USD 37.02 and was 0.33% higher than a month earlier and 3.76% higher than a year ago. The market consensus assumed an increase of 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y. This means that wages in the US continued to grow slightly faster than the officially reported CPI inflation. The average working time decreased from 34.3 to 34.2 hours per week.
