Orders in German industry are increasing. Experts are cautious, but they see an opportunity
New orders in German industry in November 2025 after taking into account seasonal and calendar factors increased by 5.6 percent month to month — Destatis reported on Thursday morning.
This result is much better than forecasts assuming a 1% decline. At the same time, this is another month in a row with a positive surprise, because in October the result exceeded the forecast and recorded 1.6%. growth (after an upward revision from the originally reported 1.5%), and in September orders increased by 2%. (there was also an upward revision here).
Again, transport and armaments increased the data
Foreign orders increased by 4.9% in November. compared to the previous month, with orders from the euro zone growing by 8.2% and from outside the euro zone by 2.9%. Domestic orders increased by 6.5%. compared to the previous month.
On an annual basis, orders in German industry in November increased by 10.5%. (seasonally adjusted by the number of working days), this is one of the highest dynamics in recent years, and without seasonality by 9.6%. In October there were year-on-year declines of 0.7%.
Commenting on the large monthly increase in orders in German industry, Bank Pekao analysts wrote that “this is largely due to large orders from the transport and arms sectors, but November's increases were quite widespread.”
“This does not change the overall picture of the sector. The recovery has been going on since the beginning of 2024, but it is so slow that it is almost imperceptible. The end of the year is therefore not bad for the German industry, but there is a long way to overcome the weakness that has been going on for several years,” Pekao experts added on the X website.
“This is a positive sign. However, the main indicator of new orders has not yet broken out of the sideways trend that has been in place since 2024,” said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank.
Large-scale procurement also helped
Excluding large-scale orders, new orders in November were only 0.7 percent higher. higher than in the previous month. The jump in orders was due to a 25.3% increase in orders for metal products. and an increase in orders for transport equipment (planes, ships, trains and military vehicles) by 12.3%. .
“Overall, this is strong data, although large orders tend to revert to average in the following month, which creates a risk of a decline in the main indicator in December,” said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Vistesen said factory orders are on track to increase significantly throughout the fourth quarter.
See also: The recession still holds the industry in check. Armaments and stimulus packages are hope for 2026
A less volatile comparison of the moving average from the last three months to the previous three months showed that orders in September, October and November were up 4%. higher than in the previous three months.
