A carefully staged political scene and a bet of 45 billion euros, for the crucial vote. But it is not yet known whether the plane to the Mercosur countries will take off

Brussels needs Rome's support by Friday to secure the necessary majority to vote on the EU's historic trade deal with South America.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is determined to travel to South America next week to sign the EU's long-delayed trade deal with the Mercosur bloc of countries, but she has to make last-minute promises to European farmers in order to get on the plane, writes Politico.

EU countries are due to take a crucial decision on Friday on whether to approve the controversial deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which has been under negotiation for more than a quarter of a century.

It is not yet certain that Ursula von der Leyen will be able to get the majority she needs on Friday. It all comes down to Italy's decision, which has the deciding vote – whether or not to support the deal.

To secure Rome's support, von der Leyen made some additional promises on agriculture funding in a letter on Tuesday. The target was clear: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – whose refusal to back the Mercosur deal forced von der Leyen to cancel her planned December trip to sign the accord.

Essentially, the Mercosur deal is an initiative by major European manufacturers to sell more cars, machinery and chemicals to Latin America, while agricultural powers in the southern hemisphere will gain greater access to the European market for food products – a prospect that terrifies EU farmers.

While Germany and Spain have long led the push for a deal, France and Poland are staunchly opposed. Thus, Italy remains the key member country, ready to cast the decisive vote.

Von der Leyen's letter on Tuesday was a carefully staged scene of political theater, notes the Brussels publication.

In the letter addressed to the Presidency of the Council of the EU and the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, the head of the Community Executive offered early access to up to 45 billion euros in agricultural funds under the next long-term budget of the community bloc, while reaffirming the agricultural spending of 293.7 billion euros after 2027.

She insisted the measures in her letter “will provide farmers and rural communities with an unprecedented level of support, in some respects even greater than in the current budget cycle”.

The money is not new – it is taken from an existing fund in the EU's next long-term budget – but governments can now lock it in for farmers ahead of time, before it is reallocated in subsequent budget negotiations.

Von der Leyen presented the measure as one that guarantees stability and preparedness in the face of crises, giving Meloni a tangible victory to present to the powerful agricultural lobby.

Will Meloni support the agreement with Mercorsur?

The big question is whether Italy will consider von der Leyen's promises enough ahead of Friday's decisive meeting.

Early signals suggest that Rome may moderate its stance. Meloni issued a statement saying the commitment on agricultural funding was “a positive and significant step in the negotiations leading to the new EU budget”, but he conspicuously avoided making a direct link to Mercosur. French President Emmanuel Macron also welcomed von der Leyen's letter, but there is no prospect of Paris endorsing the Mercosur deal on Friday.

Nicola Procaccini, a close ally of Giorgia Meloni in the European Parliament, told the quoted publication: “We are moving in the right direction to allow Italy to sign (the agreement with) Mercosur.”

Right direction, but reached the destination? The government in Rome declined to comment on whether it would support the deal.

Germany, the EU's industrial leader, wants to strike a deal with Mercosur countries to boost its exports, but is still skeptical that there is enough support to finalize the deal on Friday.

A German official warned that everything was still up for grabs. “A qualified majority is shaping up, but the deal is not done yet. Until we have the result, we have no reason to relax,” the official said.

However, optimism is growing for Rome in the pro-Mercosur camp. After all, the pact is widely seen as being in the interest not only of Italy's engineering companies, but also of high-quality wine and food producers who are big exporters to South America.

France and Poland are categorically opposed

Romania and the Czech Republic pose additional challenges, said an EU diplomat, who expressed concern that they could oppose the deal on Friday, reducing the majority to very narrow margins. The diplomat said, however, that Italy would support the agreement.

“France is still not satisfied with the proposals made by the Commission,” a French agriculture ministry official said on Tuesday, although he acknowledged that some improvements had been made. “Paris's strategy for this week is still to look for a blocking minority,” he said.

“Italy has its own strategy, we have ours,” added the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

France's allies, especially Poland, are equally adamant. Polish Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski said the priority was simply “blocking this deal”. If this fails, Warsaw will seek maximum guarantees and compensation.

That means everything will be decided on Friday.

A second failure to send Ursula von der Leyen to finalize the deal would be hugely embarrassing and would only fuel Berlin's anger at other EU countries blocking the deal.

For now, it is not yet clear whether von der Leyen will board the plane.