Exports dropped by over 10% in November. KIG reassures us: it is a seasonal effect

The value of Polish exports in November 2025 was 10.6%. lower than in October, and in annual terms it decreased by 0.5%. – according to the KIG report published on Wednesday. However, the prospects for the coming months are good due to the expected recovery, among others. in Germany.

“Currently available data on the state of the real economy and opinions obtained from KIG members allow us to estimate that exports in November 2025 amounted to EUR 28.929 billion,” the KIG report indicates.

The authors of the publication pointed out that the value of Polish exports in November was 10.6% lower than in October. However, this is largely due to seasonality and exceptionally high export activity in October. Some deliveries abroad were made in previous months, which naturally weakened the November results. In turn, a slight year-on-year decline – by 0.5%. does not indicate a trend change, but rather a “short-term correction following strong performance in earlier months.”

KIG experts pointed out that in November, export activity is usually limited after September and October, when there are the most supplies, so that trade can prepare for increased turnover in December.

In the opinion of the report's authors, the price competitiveness of some exporters was limited by the strengthening of the Polish zloty against the euro, while the weaker dollar reduced the costs of importing raw materials and components. At the same time, this situation increased competitive pressure from suppliers from outside Europe.

As noted in the report, the prospects for Polish exports in the coming quarters are better due to the expected economic recovery in the main trading partners, especially in Germany, which should translate into an increase in orders.

“In the coming quarters, factors supporting exports will become increasingly important, including the gradual economic recovery of our main trading partners and the stabilization of currency conditions. Although competitive pressure will remain high, especially from non-European producers, the medium-term prospects for Polish exports remain moderately favorable, which is reflected in the forecasts for 2025-2026,” commented Piotr Soroczyński, chief economist at KIG, quoted in the report.

Moreover, in the medium term, an increase in demand related to strengthening the defense and resilience of countries is expected in Europe and elsewhere.

“For us, the increase in demand for increasing immunity will be of particular importance. After all, it is generated very widely – not only at the level of state administration, but also at the level of individual enterprises and households. In addition, there is demand for many types of products – and this increases the level of orders for our economy,” the report indicates.

According to the NBP data quoted in the report, in the first ten months of 2025, Polish exports amounted to EUR 286.9 billion and were 2.7 percent higher than in the previous year. bigger than last year. In turn, according to the Central Statistical Office reporting, the value of exports in this period amounted to EUR 304.3 billion and was 2.8% higher than a year earlier. (PAP)

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