The first election poll this year. Prime Minister Tusk is satisfied, but only with the result of the Left
In a survey conducted on behalf of “Super Express” by Pollster at the turn of the old and new year, respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the elections were held next Sunday. The Civic Coalition retained the lead, and PiS lost some of its support.
“The new year will take a strong step, i.e. the first survey in 2026.” – writes Prime Minister Donald Tusk, clearly pleased with the result, on X. However, if you look at the trends, there is less reason to be happy.
34.2% of people want to vote for KO. respondents, i.e. by 0.4 percentage points. less than in the previous analogous survey for Super Express on December 6-7. PiS has lost more, because it is currently supported by 29.88 percent. Poles, i.e. by 1.02 percentage points. less than a month ago.
10.15% of voters intend to vote for the Confederation of Freedom and Independence (Mentzen and Bosak). (-0.65%), for the New Left – 7.37%. (+0.37%), and for the Confederation of the Crown of Poland 7.22%. (+0.52%) – according to a survey by the Pollster Research Institute for “SE”. The remaining parties would be below the electoral threshold.
The survey shows that Grzegorz Braun's party gained the most (+0.52 percentage points) and Nowa Lewica (+0.37 percentage points), and PiS (-1.02 percentage points) and PSL (-0.89 percentage points) lost the most.
Below the electoral threshold would be: the Razem Party (4.58 percent, -0.12 percentage points), Szymon Hołownia's Polska 2050 (3.31 percent, +0.31 percentage points) and the Polish People's Party (1.11 percent, -0.89 percentage points). 2.18% would vote for another party. subjects.
Building a coalition is extremely difficult
If the elections ended with the same result as in the “Super Express” poll, the Civic Coalition would win the most seats, i.e. 192, i.e. 35 more than it currently has in the Sejm. PiS would lose 15 seats and its 178 MPs would remain in parliament.
WiN Confederation would win 27 seats more than the current number, i.e. 43, and the Left would increase its possession by three MPs to 24. Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Crown of Poland would receive 23 seats, i.e. 20 more than it currently has.
Apart from PiS, the greatest losses would be suffered by those parties that did not exceed the threshold, i.e.: PSL (35 MPs), Polska 2050 (31 MPs) and Razem (5 MPs).
In such a system, no government coalition is possible without the participation of Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Crown of Poland. Well, unless, following the example of Germany and its “grand coalition”, the Civic Coalition reached an agreement with PiS.
The study was carried out between December 31, 2025 and January 1, 2026 using the CAWI method on a sample of 1,002 adult Poles. The sample structure was representative of Polish citizens aged 18+. The maximum estimation error was set at approximately 3 percentage points.
“The Crown took the place of the Confederation”
— Everything we have seen since the presidential elections until the end of the calendar year is confirmed: KO has a clear advantage over PiS, among its voters, and lacks a simple concept of escaping the stalemate situation. A Confederation that is below the result achieved by Sławomir Mentzen in the presidential elections and is probably focused on defending this state of affairs – commented political scientist, prof. Rafał Chwedoruk.
— The Left is confident of entering the Sejm, but not necessarily sure that together with KO it will be enough to rule. And Grzegorz Braun's party, where large fluctuations in support will be something we will regularly observe. This party took the place of Confederation and became a universal party of protests. And the Razem party is once again unable to take advantage of a good result, he added.
