According to KSE, Russia's oil export revenues fell to $11 billion in November from $12.9 billion in October. The average export price fell to $47.1 per barrel, while world prices remained at $63.6. Export volumes fell to 6.8 million barrels per day due to decreased purchases by major buyers – China, India and Turkey.
“The amount of Russian 'oil on water' – shipments that have not found a buyer and remain on tankers – has increased. This means that exports could fall further. While such changes may be temporary due to the realignment of supply chains, they could become permanent if sanctions pressure continues,” the KSE said.
The budget remains the main challenge for Russia on the eve of the end of the year, economists said. The federal budget deficit in January–November increased to 4.3 trillion. rub. Oil and gas revenues fell 22% year-on-year and other revenues rose just 11%, while expenses rose 13%. The KSE notes that if December spending remains at last year's level, the annual deficit could reach RUB 7.8 trillion.
To cover the deficit, Russia is actively increasing domestic borrowing: in November, the Ministry of Finance attracted a record 2 trillion. Government bond issuance in 11 months exceeded the 2024 figure by 225%, which could further increase inflation despite the central bank's tight policy, KSE data showed.
According to analysts, the country's economy is showing almost complete stagnation. In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed to 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, and the annual growth rate fell to 0.6%. Projections for 2025 are now below 1%, and for 2026 around 1%. The fundamental limitations of the Russian economy after the artificial military rise of 2023-2024 are already making themselves felt, KSE added.
