'Clear clue' to secret base where Putin has put nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles capable of hitting Europe
Two American researchers, who studied satellite images, are almost certain that Moscow is stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that may strengthen Russia's ability to launch missiles across Europe, according to Reuters.
The researchers' assessment is largely consistent with the conclusions of U.S. intelligence services, said a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share information not authorized for public release.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear his intention to place medium-range Oresnik missiles, estimated to be up to 5,500 km, in Belarus, but the exact location has not been previously disclosed.
Some experts said the deployment of the Oresnik missiles would underscore the Kremlin's growing reliance on the threat of nuclear weapons in an attempt to deter NATO members from supplying Kiev with weapons that can strike deep inside Russia.
The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.
The Belarusian embassy declined to comment. State news agency Belta quoted Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin on Wednesday as saying that deploying the Oresnik missiles would not change the balance of power in Europe and that it was “our response” to “aggressive actions” by the West.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and the CIA declined to comment on the matter.
What conclusions did the researchers draw?
Researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth of the research and analysis organization CNA in Virginia said they based their conclusions on the deployment of the Oresnik missiles on images provided by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company, detecting features specific to a Russian strategic missile base.
Along with @DuitsmanMS and @dex_eveI think we found the first deployment site in Belarus of the Oreshnik IRBM. 𧔠pic.twitter.com/5iB8X84hbs
â Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) December 26, 2025
Lewis and Eveleth said they were 90 percent certain the Oresnik mobile launchers would be stationed at the former air base near Krichev, about 307 km east of the Belarusian capital Minsk and 478 km southwest of Moscow.
Tested for the first time in November 2024 against a target in Ukraine, the Oreshnik (Russian: “hazelnut”) missile is touted by Vladimir Putin as impossible to intercept due to a speed that, according to reports, exceeds Mach 10.
Putin plans to deploy the weapon “in Belarus to extend its reach into Europe,” said John Foreman, a Chatham House expert who served as British military attachĂ© in Moscow and Kiev.
Reaction to US plans in Germany
Foreman said he sees the move as a reaction to the United States' plan to station conventional missiles, including the Dark Eagle medium-range hypersonic missile, in Germany next year.
The deployment of the Oresnik missiles would come just weeks before the expiration of the 2010 New START pact, the last treaty between the US and Russia that limits the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons by the world's largest nuclear powers.
Putin said after a December 2024 meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, that Oreshnik could be stationed in Belarus in the second half of this year – part of a revised strategy in which Moscow bases nuclear weapons outside its territory for the first time since the Cold War.
Lukashenko said last week that the first missiles had been deployed without specifying a location.
Lukashenko said up to 10 Oreshnik missiles would be stationed in Belarus. American researchers have estimated that the site is large enough to house only three launchers, and the others could be stationed elsewhere.
US President Donald Trump is trying to reach a deal with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, which has prompted Western allies to send weapons that can reach deep into Russia.
Trump has so far rejected Kiev's request to supply Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting Moscow. Britain and France have supplied cruise missiles to Ukraine. Germany announced in May that it would co-produce long-range missiles with Ukraine, with no limits on range or targets.
The construction, done in a hurry
American researchers said analysis of Planet Labs images showed a rushed construction project that began between Aug. 4 and 12 and had features similar to those of a Russian strategic missile base.
A “clear indication” in a Nov. 19 photo is a “military-grade rail transfer point” surrounded by a security fence, to which the missiles, mobile launchers and other components could be delivered by train, Eveleth said.
Another feature, Lewis said, is the casting of a concrete pad at the end of the runway that was then covered with soil, which he characterized as “consistent with a camouflaged launch point.”
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russian nuclear forces, said he was skeptical that deploying the Oresnik missiles would provide Moscow with additional military or political advantages beyond providing Belarus with protection.
“I don't see how this could be perceived in the West … as different from what's going on in Russia,” he said.
But Lewis said the Oresnik deployment to Belarus highlighted how the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons outside its territory sent a “political message” about increased reliance on them.
âCan you imagine if we put a nuclear-armed Tomahawk (cruise missile) in Germany instead of conventional ones?â Lewis said. “There is no military reason to install the system in Belarus, only political reasons.”
