Putin will lose the war. “The fantasy that Russia is a fairytale land with unlimited resources is starting to crumble.”
You claim that Russia will lose the war if the situation continues to develop like this. Do you maintain this opinion?
Marcus Keupp: If military aid from the West continues and Russia continues to lose so much personnel and equipment, then yes. Russia lives off its reserves. And these reserves are running out.
These aren't peace talks — they're Russian information operations against the US. Moscow's goal in these “negotiations” is to infiltrate the Trump administration with pro-Russian ideas. Putin learned this technique in the KGB and is now using it again.
Successfully, right? The United States is pressuring Kiev to let Ukrainians return Donbas to Moscow.
This would be a step towards the destruction of Ukraine. If Ukraine gave up Donbas, Russia would gain ideal positions for an attack. Putin would launch further attacks until Ukraine completely disappeared from the map – or became a pro-Russian satellite state.
This is why Ukraine demands security guarantees. What could they look like?
I only see two possibilities. The first is that NATO is sending its own troops to Ukraine. Putin would then have to risk war with a military alliance that is far superior to him militarily in the event of another attack.
The second possibility is that the West will turn Ukraine into a heavily armed frontline state through massive investments in weapons factories. A similar situation occurred after 1955 in West Germany.
How much would it cost?
I don't know. One thing is certain: it would be a huge opportunity for the European arms industry. Today, companies such as Rheinmetall are investing large sums in Ukraine.
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What could the path to a ceasefire look like?
I don't see any at the moment. Putin will not stop hostilities of his own accord. Russia would only consider a ceasefire if it was unable to continue the war. However, this does not appear to be the case at the moment. The war will continue in 2026 as well.
In 2025, Russia took 0.77 percent. territory of Ukraine, sacrificing hundreds of thousands of soldiers for this purpose. In 2026, Putin intends to call up Russian reservists. Will this be enough to compensate for the losses?
In poorer regions of Russia (e.g. Tuva) the average monthly salary is $200. (approx. PLN 716, calculated at the current exchange rate). As soldiers, they can earn ten to twenty times more. For many poor Russians, participating in the war is still very financially attractive.
Putin has no shortage of people willing to fight, but he is increasingly running out of money to pay them. In several regions, bonuses for soldiers have been reduced because local authorities have no money.
Putin can simply pass it on to them [żołnierzom] more money from the Russian austerity budget.
This situation cannot last long. The National Welfare Fund, which was supposed to finance Russia's pensions and social spending, will be exhausted as early as 2026.
However, there are ways in which Putin can patch up the budget. For example, it can force oligarchs to buy state bonds. However, the fantasy that Russia is a fairy-tale land with unlimited resources is slowly starting to crumble.
Why do you think so?
Many food products are 100 to 200 percent more expensive than at the beginning of the war [pełnoskalowej inwazji na Ukrainę w 2022 r.]. In addition, millions of jobs in the civilian economy remain unfilled due to lack of workers. Those who return from the war wounded or do not return at all can no longer work or raise families.
Putin is sacrificing both the economic future and the country's people for his war. He bets it will last longer than the West. If this fails, Russia will be demographically and technologically regressed to the 20th century.
Are sanctions finally working?
Sanctions really hurt Russia, especially those aimed at oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. In addition, there are successful attacks by Ukraine, which further harm the Russian energy industry.
In 2026, we will likely face an oil surplus again. Production in the Persian Gulf countries and the United States is high, and the price of WTI crude oil is currently below $60. American. For Moscow, this situation is quickly becoming dangerous.
“Russia's war against us is already underway”
Is there anyone in Russia who could pose a political threat to Putin?
Since the downing of the plane of the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023 – no one. The only people left are people who nod and agree with everything the president says and does.
One of them is the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, who repeatedly, untruthfully, informed Putin that this or that city had been captured by the Russians.
You say, among other things: about Kupiansk. Zelensky exposed the Russians' lie by going there in mid-December and recording a video.
It was impressive. Shortly thereafter, the Ukrainians sank a Russian submarine for the first time using the new Sea Baby naval drone. Moreover, this successful operation took place in the port of Novorossiysk – Russia's largest oil port, from which the majority of oil exports to China and India come. It is surprising that this strategically important port is not better secured.
Ukrainian SeaBaby drones (illustrative photo)Kyrylo Chubotin/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Contributor / Getty Images
Apart from Sea Baby drones, do you see any other noteworthy defense inventions in Ukraine?
Flamingo cruise missile. It's not actually a new design, but an example of what can be created when old Soviet systems are combined with modern technology. It is a combination of the best features of Eastern and Western technical thought in one weapon.
Do you see new types of weapons on the Russian side that concern you?
Russia is also investing heavily in drone development. But I don't see any real breakthroughs or miracle weapons. On the contrary.
The videos show Russian soldiers moving at the front on motorcycles and sometimes on horses and donkeys. Moscow is bringing 20th century relics back to the modern battlefield because it lacks other means.
Can Ukraine push the Russians out of the occupied territories?
Not on my own. However, if the West intensifies its support and Russia continues to struggle with such high human and material losses, the best case scenario is that Ukraine can do it. The West would have the means to do so. The only thing missing is the will.
Experts predict that in 2028, Russia may attack another European country. Against whom could Russian aggression be directed?
Russia's war against us is already underway. You have to sleep very deeply not to notice it. Sabotage of gas pipelines and data cables in the Baltic Sea, drones over European airports, countless propaganda campaigns: these are all measures used in the hybrid war that Moscow is waging against us. The only thing currently missing is mechanized means: tanks and the like.
What will the war look like in a year? What's your forecast?
For Russia, war is better than peace. Today, war is the engine that holds this vast empire together internally. In the case of Putin's Russia, the rule applies: war is peace. Even if this war is no longer fought by mechanized means, or if some fragile ceasefire is reached, this does not mean that Russia will deviate even an inch from its imperial ambitions.
