Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the American peace plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war provides for freezing the conflict on the current lines of contact, the media reported on Wednesday, including: AFP agency. The new plan says, among other things: also that Ukraine would maintain an army of 800,000. soldiers, security guarantees would reflect the provisions of NATO Article 5, and Russia would legally commit to non-aggression. Territorial issues remain unresolved.
According to Ukrainians, the new document is a changed version of the original 28-point plan, which was supposed to be unfavorable to Ukraine.
“The plan looks very reasonable” but “could be sabotaged by Russia”
Prof. does not agree with this last statement. Roman Kuźniar, head of the Department of Strategic Studies and International Security at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, and former director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
– In my opinion, this plan is so different from what was discussed earlier that I would not talk about a modification of an earlier document that was unfavorable for Ukraine, but something completely new – says Prof. Forgeman. — Today, what President Zalensky showed the world looks very reasonable. In my opinion, these 20 points take into account the interests of the Ukrainian side. Especially when it comes to its security and sovereignty. And I think that in the current conditions this is a very good plan. So good that I doubt whether it will come into force. It can be sabotaged by Russia from the beginning and later, the scientist adds.
At the request of Onet, the professor comments and evaluates some points contained in the published peace plan for Ukraine.
The article continues below the video
What points are strange in Ukraine's peace plan?
What does prof. say? Kuźniar on the size of the Ukrainian army?
What security guarantees does the plan for Ukraine provide?
Why is Ukraine's membership in the EU considered unrealistic?
These are the specific plans. “This point is very good”
“The document constitutes a complete and unquestionable non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A mechanism will be established to monitor the conflict line using unmanned satellite surveillance to detect violations early.”
Implementation of this point according to prof. Kuźniara will not be technically difficult. There are enough satellites hanging over Ukraine and monitoring what is happening there today. However, the implementation of this point in the peace plan requires specifying who would monitor this satellite image.
— I think that this could be done, for example, by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Even better would be the UN Security Council. It is a pity that in this document we do not have a reference to this body and the need for the Security Council to adopt an appropriate resolution. After all, it is the highest institution dealing with security in international life. And I think this resolution has to come at some point. But for me this point is very good, says the professor.
The problem of army numbers and NATO. “Such guarantees for Ukraine are possible”
“The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in peacetime will be maintained at 800,000.
According to the expert, it is very good that this point is included in the plan, because it is a guarantee for Ukraine. It shows some maximum limit. Probably, if peace is actually concluded, Ukraine will initially keep such an army on standby. Later, however, she can limit it herself. Maintaining 800 thousand soldiers are a huge cost. Once peace is concluded and they feel safer, Ukrainians may, over time, decide that they do not need such forces.
— Some of the soldiers from this “limit” will probably be transferred over time to the reserve, so that in the event of another crisis or conflict, they can be mobilized again and quickly sent into combat – says Kuźniar.
“The US, NATO and European signatories will provide Ukraine with guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. In the event of an invasion by Russia, a coordinated military response will be launched and all global sanctions will be restored. The guarantees will be invalidated if Ukraine attacks Russian territory unprovoked. Existing bilateral security agreements with about 30 countries remain in force.”
— Ukraine knows that it will not join NATO. It was impossible from the beginning, says the professor. — However, I believe that such security guarantees similar to “Article 5” are possible. Of course, this point needs to be clarified very clearly. But the point here is probably that Russia would have to take into account the military response of those other countries that guarantee Ukraine's security in the event of behavior described in Article 5. I am talking about the use of force, another aggression. If Russia agreed to this, it would deter it from aggressive intentions. Each time she will risk a much broader and more decisive answer. I really like this provision in the peace plan. From the beginning, I believed that such guarantees for Ukraine were possible and would be effective.
Ukraine will join the EU. “The dates are unrealistic”
“Ukraine will become a member of the European Union at a clearly defined date (President Zelensky suggests 2027 or 2028) and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market.”
– This is an unrealistic point to achieve in the time perspective suggested here – Roman Kuźniar makes it clear. — Ukraine has no chance of quick membership. I do not think that Ukraine will be able to meet the Copenhagen Criteria, which were formulated in 1993 for every future member state. It would be extremely risky for Ukraine to implement them “just like that”. Even the Ukrainian services market might not survive this. They simply would not be able to withstand the competition on the EU market. I know that many people in Poland are also worried about the Polish economy after Ukraine's accession, but in my opinion it would bring more opportunities than risks for our economy. Then we would have a chance to expand significantly into the Ukrainian market. But this would be risky for Kiev. Slowly reaching the EU criteria will allow Ukraine to secure its economy. In my opinion, quick accession to the EU would hit their industry and could lead to the collapse of many industries in Ukraine. I also think that this particular point of the peace plan will be modified. The dates given here are unrealistic. However, it is possible to accelerate the actual binding of Ukraine with the EU.
“Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (point of contention). Washington proposes joint management of Ukraine, Russia and the US (33% each), with the US as the main supervisor. Ukraine opposes Russian control, demanding the demilitarization of Enerhodar and the plant and the creation of a joint venture with the US.” and “Front line and “Free Economic Zones” (point of contention). The line of military positions on the day the agreement was signed will be considered the de facto front line. Russia must withdraw from the occupied parts of the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. The concept of “potential free economic zones” in Donbas is being considered, which is intended to be a compromise to the territorial demands of both sides. International forces will be placed along the front lines.”
— I understand that something like the pre-war “Free City of Gdańsk” will be built in these areas? – wonders the expert.
— A very large presence of international peacekeeping forces and external observers is definitely planned in these areas, says Prof. Forgeman. — Otherwise, knowing the Russians, there will be armed “free Americans” in these potential extraterritorial or economic zones – he explains.
The professor believes that it will be good if Ukrainian soldiers can be present in these zones, but it would be better if there were no Russian forces there. This would change the strategic situation in these areas.
— These are the things and provisions at this point that would require a lot of technical work. Clarifications down to the smallest detail. But I perceive these provisions positively. On the current front line, international forces should maintain order. Then there will be no possibility for the Russians to carry out sabotage there or treat Donbas as a base against Ukraine, says the professor.
“Ukraine must hold presidential elections as soon as possible after signing the agreement.”
According to the expert, this provision is unnecessary. It is a bit offensive to the Ukrainian side. However, there are free elections in this country and there is no need to remind them of their necessity. Meanwhile, there are no free elections in Russia, and no one talks about their need in the peace plan. Trump accepts the rule of a bloody tyrant in Moscow, but wants a democrat in Kiev, although the president has been elected democratically in Ukraine for a long time.
– However, I understand that the Ukrainians agreed to such a “compromise” – says prof. Forgeman. — However, this is unfair to Zelensky on Trump's part. Trump does not like the president of Ukraine because he, while defending the interests of his country, opposes America. Trump is not used to this, and that is why he is doing something that suits Putin in terms of image. But maybe this point of the plan will be refined so much that it will ultimately turn out to be quite good? All we need to do is guarantee that the elections must be held, because they would be held anyway, but Russia has no right to interfere in them in any way? In a financial way, propaganda way and so on. That would be very good.
