“The economic growth prospects in Poland remain good, and economic activity will be supported by increased domestic demand” – said PZU chief economist Dawid Pachucki.
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“The disappointing results of industrial production in November are part of the recent weaker economic situation in global, including European, manufacturing. Despite the weaker end of the year, we expect an increase in domestic consumption and investment in the coming quarters” – pointed out Dawid Pachucki.
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According to data from the Central Statistical Office, production decreased by 1.1% last month. y/y, with the median forecast, depending on the source of the surveys, at the level of 2.7-2.9%. In September, the domestic industry was growing at a rate of 7.6%. y/y, beating market expectations by nearly 2 percentage points. In October, the pace of this growth slowed down to 3.3%. y/y, influenced by, among others, high reference base, but the result itself turned out to be better than the consensus by almost 1 percentage point.
“We expect high real investment growth in the coming quarters. A strong acceleration of the contracting of EU funds at the turn of 2023 and 2024, taking into account historical delays in relation to changes in gross fixed capital formation reported by the Central Statistical Office, allows us to expect that the peak of the investment growth rate in this cycle of EU funds will fall around the first half of 2026,” Dawid Pachucki pointed out.
See also: The Polish economy will lose its driving force. We must rely on private capital and innovation
Investments constitute one of the key components of GDP, directly stimulating economic growth through the purchase of new capital goods, such as machinery, equipment and infrastructure. In the short term, they generate demand on the market, which translates into increased production and employment, while in the long term they build the country's production potential, increasing labor efficiency and technological modernity.
