Statistical record, real out of breath? Small issuers disappear from the market, and PKO pumps up the statistics

2025 may be a record year in terms of the value of corporate bond issues, said Emil Szweda, an analyst at Obligacje.pl, in a weekly commentary.

“In terms of the value of corporate issues carried out, 2025 is likely to be a record year. We already know the scale of bond issues addressed to a wide range of investors based on prospectuses. For the first time it exceeded PLN 2.5 billion. The previous record from 2017 exceeded PLN 1.8 billion, and the highest total value of issues carried out during 12 months was in June 2018 (slightly over PLN 2 billion). Theoretically, the market has set a record confirming the pace of its development. In practice, the record was broken, but mainly due to the issue of covered bonds by PKO Bank Hipotecznywhich offered to take up securities worth PLN 1.2 billion at a time,” wrote Szweda.

If this one emission were not taken into account – as the expert added – the value of widely available emissions would drop significantlycompared to the previous year (PLN 1.6 billion). The number of offers carried out (18) is, even without statistical manipulation, lower than in the two previous years (33 each).

The diversity of the market is also lower (ten issuers compared to a dozen in previous years) and the value (PLN 130 million vs. PLN 259 million in 2025) of the so-called small public issues, i.e. widely distributed, but carried out on the basis of memoranda and limited to the equivalent of EUR 5 million per year.

“In this case, we could even talk about a collapse, since the decline reached 50 percent, but firstly, last year created an exceptionally high comparative base, secondly, we are talking about relatively low amounts for the capital market, so any kind of fluctuations calculated in percentages will always give the impression of dynamic changes,” Szweda said.

He added that the number of issues on the corporate bond market has decreased, but their value has increased.

“First of all, issues with a value exceeding PLN 500 million are increasingly entering the market. During the economic crisis, in 2022, there was not a single such issue on the market, and currently the demand is absorbing two of them per quarter. Orlen has just placed an issue on the domestic market for PLN 2 billion, which is the largest corporate offer in Poland in almost two years (Cyfrowy Polsat's issue was 3.5 PLN billion),” wrote the analyst.

In his opinion, on the one hand, an increase in the number of large issues improves the security of portfolios, assuming, of course, that large bond issues are less risky than smaller ones (statistics support this thesis), but on the other hand, a higher share of large issues means narrower diversification.

“However, this is a solvable problem. What is worse is that interest rate cuts have brought the WBOR rate 1.9 percentage points lower, which has an impact on the interest charged. In addition, the inflow of capital into the debt market and the predominance of demand allowed issuers to continue compressing margins. This situation is not favorable for investors, but it apparently does not bother them, because inflows to debt funds, including corporate ones, continued in the fall,” he said.

“However, the yield on treasury bonds fell much slower (by 0.8 percentage points for ten-year bonds), which ensured extra profits from the increase in quotations, but at the same time reduced the credit risk premiums for corporate bonds. This is 'strange' behavior, since it is the state treasury that is incurring debt and corporations are reducing their liabilities,” he added.

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Weekly calendar of events December 22-28

Monday, December 22

• Allegro.eu SA (ALE0630) – determination of rights to interest.

• Bank Ochrony Środowiska (BOS1228) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Best (KRI0328) – determination of rights to interest.

• Cavatina Holding (CAV0627) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Developres (DVR1226) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Endorsement (INS0628) – determination of rights to interest.

• Invest TDJ Estate (TDJ0628) – determination of rights to interest.

• KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH0631) – determination of rights to interest.

• NDI Finance (NDI0327) – determination of interest rights.

• Olivia Fin (OBC1126) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Orlen (PKN1225) – interest payment and redemption date.

• PKO Bank Hipoteczny (PHP0626) – determination of rights to interest; (PHP0328) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Vehis Finanse (VHI0626) – determination of rights to interest.

• Victoria House (VID1226) – interest payment and redemption date.

• White Stone Development (WSD0627) – determination of interest rights.

Tuesday, December 23

• Develia (DVL0726) – determination of interest rights.

• Developres (DVR1227) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Invest TDJ Estate (TDJ1226) – determination of rights to interest.

• Kruk (KRU0129) – determination of rights to interest.

• Okam Capital (OKA0628) – determination of interest rights.

• Vehis Finanse (VHI0627) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

Wednesday, December 24

• Bałtycki Bank Spółdzielczy in Darłowo (BBS1225) – interest payment and redemption date.

• Pekao Bank Hipoteczny (PEOH630) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

• Vehis Finanse (VHI0328) – determination of interest rights.

Thursday, December 25

• NDI Finance (NDI0327) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

Friday, December 26

• KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH0631) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

• PragmaGO (PRF0627) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Vindexus Property Rights Exchange (VIN0327) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

Saturday, December 27

• Best (KRI0328) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

• Echo Investment (ECH0626) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

• Endorsement (INS0628) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

• Vehis Finanse (VHI0626) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

Sunday, December 28

• Echo Investment (ECH0627) – interest payment and beginning of a new interest period.

• Kruk (KRU0627) – interest payment and the beginning of a new interest period.

• White Stone Development (WSD0627) – interest payment and start of a new interest period.

(PAP Business)

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