Peace agreement in Ukraine? “Russia is not interested”

Russia is not interested in signing any agreement with Ukraine, Natia Seskuria, an international security expert and collaborator with the British think tank RUSI, told PAP. In her opinion, Russian leader Vladimir Putin will continue to play for time.

According to the analyst, Putin wants to negotiate directly with US President Donald Trump, and at the same time wants to ensure that European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot set the terms of any peace plan. In her opinion, this is evidenced by the statement of the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, who, after the talks in Berlin, stated that Moscow is not willing to compromise on the occupied territories of Ukraine.

– It is likely that Russia will avoid formally rejecting the emerging proposals and, in practice, will stall the discussions and press for a return to the original peace plan, Seskuria said. In her assessment, “Putin clearly calculates that by extending the negotiations, he can gain time to improve Russia's position on the battlefield and thus increase his leverage at the negotiating table.”

The RUSI expert emphasized that the situation on the battlefield has a significant impact on the dynamics of peace talks. She recalled that Russian forces are still advancing slowly, conducting intensive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

Moscow wants to show that is able to take Donbas by force

– Moscow believes that military pressure and territorial advances are important to gain greater negotiating power and demonstrate that it is able to seize Donbas by force if Ukraine rejects Russian terms. As a result, Ukraine's room for maneuver in negotiations with the US is limited, because Russian military pressure may effectively increase US pressure on Ukraine to accept a compromise, the PAP interlocutor speculates.

Asked about the new peace plan presented in Berlin by European leaders and Ukraine, she replied that it “still does not represent a decisive step towards a final solution, but there is a clear change.” – For the first time, the revised plan gives real priority to specific security guarantees, which is crucial for Ukraine. European leaders also managed to remove some clauses that seemed to be designed solely to benefit Moscow, which is a significant correction, the expert noted.

However, she emphasized that “the most controversial issues, primarily regarding the territories occupied by Russia, remain unclear, which seriously limits the chances of reaching a lasting agreement.”

In the analyst's opinion, the cautious optimism on the part of European leaders, expressed after the meeting in the German capital, “seems premature”, because – as she emphasized – the key issue, i.e. the future of Donbas, still remains unknown.

– It is extremely unlikely that Moscow will accept any agreement under which Ukraine will receive solid guarantees from NATO. This is a red line that Russia consistently treats as impossible to cross, she added.

From London Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

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