Falling inflation and rising wages encourage larger purchases for the holidays – UMCS economist Prof. told PAP. Jakub Czerniak. He positively assessed the introduction of a public holiday on Christmas Eve. – This means less rush and stress – he emphasized.
Prof. Czerniak said that the macroeconomic situation, including inflation and salary increases, influences Poles' Christmas shopping. According to the Central Statistical Office's flash estimate, the prices of consumer goods and services increased by 2.4% in November 2025. compared to the same month last year In turn, the average salary in the national economy in June 2025 amounted to PLN 8,766.10 and compared to June last year, it increased nominally by 8.8%.
– Wages are growing faster than inflation, so we actually earn more and can buy more. Unemployment in Poland is still very low, which additionally encourages higher consumer spending during the holiday season, said the economist.
He admitted that consumers would probably be willing to make larger purchases than last year. He drew attention to the current consumer confidence index (BWUK) surveyed by the Central Statistical Office. Since the beginning of the pandemic in Poland, pessimists have dominated among respondents, but the indicator has improved from -39.8%. in 2022 to -9.9 percent in November this year
– There are still more pessimists than optimists, but this advantage is slowly decreasing. The leading consumer confidence index (WWUK) in November was -7.5%, while in the whole of 2022 it was -29.5%. This means that Poles' pessimism about the situation in the coming twelve months is also decreasing – said the economist.
According to the economist, Poles will spend more on preparing for the holidays than last year. – Not necessarily because the prices of Christmas products have increased, because research by the Polish Bank Association shows that this is not the case – he admitted.
The report “Christmas Wallet of Poles 2025” prepared by the Polish Bank Association and the Minds&Roses research company shows that Poles will spend an average of PLN 1,787 on Christmas – over PLN 200 more than in 2024. However, the estimated value of the Christmas basket for a family of four will be nearly PLN 150 lower than in 2024 and will amount to PLN 3,655. This will be achieved, among others, by: cheaper fuel and lower prices for preparations for family gatherings
However, the Provident Christmas Barometer shows that This year, Poles will spend PLN 1,387 on Christmas-related products and giftsPLN 66 less than a year earlier and PLN 329 less than in 2023.
Prof. Czerniak said that the research should be approached with caution, because, for example, in the case of the Provident Barometer, the surveys were collected in October, two months before the holidays. There are also methodological differences between the reports, as in the case of fuel prices, which were taken into account by the authors of the “Christmas Portfolio of Poles” and most likely not of the Barometer. – Much depends on when the research was performed and how precisely the questions to respondents were formulated – he noted.
– We will spend a little more because pessimism among consumers is decreasing. The good situation on the labor market and low inflation remain, which allows us to look into the future with slight optimism, said the economist.
For the first time since the introduction of the Sunday trading ban, there will be three trading Sundays in December. According to prof. Melanoma lesion will not significantly impact the economy.
– More than half of Poles do not feel the need to work more often on Sundays. Poles have unlearned shopping on Sunday, if only because these shopping Sundays are irregular, said the economist. He recalled the United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska from December last year, which showed that 54.5 percent respondents do not want to change the regulations on the ban on Sunday trading.
According to the expert, restoring commercial Sundays could contribute to an increase in Polish GDP, but not necessarily to an improvement in the quality of life. – It is worth asking yourself whether it would not be better to limit consumerism and use your free day for sports, a book or a meeting with your loved ones – he said.
A good change – according to the economist – is the introduction of a day off on December 24, i.e. on Christmas Eve. – This means less rush and stress, which is why I assess the change clearly positively. This makes it easier for people who prepare Christmas Eve themselves or want to spend it with a family living in a distant part of Poland, he said.
In his opinion, shop owners should not lose out on a free Christmas Eve. – The change does not mean that consumers will give up shopping, but will only postpone it and take advantage of, for example, shopping Sundays – he said.
According to prof. Melanoma On December 23, you should be prepared for queues in grocery stores. – We have three days off, and Poles like to buy a lot in advance – he admitted.
The economist drew attention to the growing popularity of the e-commerce channel, whose share in retail sales – according to data from the Statista platform – increased from 12.5 percent. in 2017 to 21.9 percent in 2024 – The pandemic was a strong impulse for the e-commerce market. Currently, fashion has the largest share in the value of online sales, but it is estimated that in 2027 food will be the most important category when it comes to online shopping, he said.
Prof. Czerniak expects that the development of artificial intelligence in marketing will work to the advantage of sellers, not customers. – This is good news for store owners, because it will make it easier to tailor advertising to customer preferences and help increase sales. From the consumers' point of view, it will be an additional tool to persuade us to make another purchase, he said. (PAP)
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