There is a position of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Billions of bank profits will be distributed
Read also: Sejm. A key amendment to the Swiss franc act. “These are not trivial amounts”
After ten months of 2025, Polish banks generated PLN 40.3 billion in net profit, i.e. they increased their earnings by 14.4%. compared to the same period in 2024. This also means that they have already broken the record for nominal profit for the entire 2024 (PLN 40.1 billion). Throughout 2025, the industry's net profit may reach PLN 48 billion, which would be a new record and would mean an increase by one fifth compared to 2024.
So the profits will be big. The question now is what part of them banks will be able to pay out to their shareholders. This depends not only on the will of the banks themselves. This is a very strictly regulated industry, so the consent of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority is required. The payment conditions are determined by the KNF's dividend policy, which the supervisory authority traditionally publishes in December.
On Wednesday, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority unanimously adopted the banks' dividend policy for 2026. There are no major changes compared to the document announced a year ago and applicable in 2025. However, there is a new provision regarding banks' susceptibility to interest rate drops.
Our estimates show that seven banks from the Warsaw Stock Exchangewhich have regularly shared profits in recent years, will be able to transfer PLN 25.1 billion to their shareholders in 2026 as dividends.
This means a year-on-year increase of 5%, or PLN 1.22 billion. In this text, we show which banks can pay high dividends and estimate what these amounts may be.
What's new in the KNF's dividend policy for banks for 2026
“The direct objective of the Commission's dividend policy is to ensure the stability of the Polish financial sector by adapting the capital base of supervised entities to the level of risk they bear and to protect recipients of financial services of these entities,” the Polish Financial Supervision Authority said.
The Polish Financial Supervision Authority's policy states that the supervision allows commercial banks to pay up to a maximum of 75% in 2026. from the profit for 2025. Similarly to 2024 and 2025, it does not allow for a “standard” 100% payment. annual profit.
Possibility of payment in 2026 of a maximum of 50%. annual profit will be granted to banks that meet the following criteria (they have not changed in relation to 2025):
— they do not implement the recovery plan;
— are positively assessed as part of the Supervisory Investigation and Assessment (the final BION rating is not worse than 2.5);
— have a level of financial leverage (LR) higher than 5%. (this is the ratio of capital to all assets – the higher it is, the stronger the bank);
— have a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio not lower than the required minimum: 4.5%. + 56.25 percent P2R requirement (Pillar 2 Requirement, concerns additional capital charge on Swiss franc mortgages) + combined buffer requirement (systemic risk buffer, currently 0%) + conservation buffer of 2.5%. + countercyclical buffer currently amounting to 1%. (in September 2026 it will grow to the target 2 percent) + buffer of another systemically important institution, the so-called OSII (determined by an individual decision of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority) + P2G (Pillar II Guidance, an additional capital recommendation, measures the bank's sensitivity to an unfavorable macroeconomic scenario using the results of supervisory stress tests, in Poland it is related to the size of the variable-rate mortgage portfolio).
— have a Tier I (T1) capital ratio not lower than the required minimum: 6%. +75 percent P2R requirement + combined buffer requirement + P2G.
— have a total capital ratio (TCR) not lower than the required minimum: 8%. + all P2R requirement + combined buffer requirement + P2G.
Amount up to 75%. the profit from 2025 will be able to be paid in 2026 only by banks that meet the criteria for paying 50%.but at the same time, their portfolio of receivables from the non-financial sector must be of good credit quality. To be precise: the share of NPLs (non-performing loans, loans with delayed repayment), including debt instruments, at a level not exceeding 5%. This is the same criterion as before.
As in previous years, the bank should meet the criteria qualifying for the payment both at the end of 2025 and at the time of adopting a resolution regarding the possible payment of dividend from the profit achieved in 2025.
New criterion regarding sensitivity to interest rate declines
As in previous years, there is a restriction for banks with a significant portfolio of foreign currency housing loans. Here, the dividend rate should be additionally adjusted with specific criteria, the so-called K1 and K2. The former means that a bank with a share of foreign currency mortgages in the entire portfolio of receivables from the financial sector exceeds 5%. has a reduced dividend payout rate by 20 percentage points. If the share exceeds 10 percent, the payout rate is reduced by 40 percentage points, above 20 percent. by 60 percentage points, and if above 30 percent, then by 100 percentage points.
The K2 criterion stipulates that a bank whose share of foreign currency mortgages sold in 2007-2008 (when the franc exchange rate was the lowest) in the total portfolio of foreign currency mortgages is higher than 20 percent, has its dividend payout rate reduced by 30 percentage points, and by more than 50 percent. by 50 percentage points The total value of corrections from the K1 and K2 criteria adds up to 75 percentage points.
See also: “Banks will have no scruples.” This is how rate cuts will affect their results
There is also a new entry. “For banks that are characterized by too high sensitivity of interest income or the economic value of capital to changes in interest rates, the dividend rate should be additionally reduced by 25 percentage points.” – the Polish Financial Supervision Authority reported.
What does “high sensitivity” mean? The Polish Financial Supervision Authority indicated that this meant SOT NII levels higher than the regulatory limits of > -5%. and SOT EVE > -15 percent , both at the individual and consolidated level. SOT NII and SOT EVE are new supervisory tools for testing interest rate risk. The first measure is the Supervisory Outlier Test on Net Interest Income, it is used to assess the impact of a change in rates on interest income, the second is the Supervisory Outlier Test on Economic Value of Equity, it shows the impact on the economic value of capital.
What about the profits earned by banks in previous years?
The KNF requirements do not include information on the possibility of paying 100%. annual profit (the same was true in 2024 and 2025). However, this does not necessarily rule out attempts by some players to withdraw undistributed profits from previous years. First, however, such a bank will have to contact the supervisory authority, which will issue an individual decision.
“The Commission also considers it necessary not to undertake other actions, in particular those beyond the scope of current business and operating activities, which may result in a reduction of own funds, without prior consultation with the supervisory authority. This also applies to possible dividend payments from retained earnings and buybacks of own shares. The Commission expects that the possible implementation of such operations will always be preceded by consultation with the Commission and depend on its result,” the PFSA's position added.
