2025-12-18 17:30
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2025-12-18 17:30
In 2026, the good economic situation in Poland can be expected; GDP growth may reach 3.8%. – forecast economists from Bank Millennium. CPI inflation will remain within the NBP target range for a longer period of time, but the potential for its decline from current levels is limited.
“In 2026, we expect the good economic situation and economic growth to remain at 3.8 percent. Taking into account the IMF forecasts, Poland will remain the growth leader in the region. We expect a continuation of changes in the growth structure. The main driving force will be investments in fixed assets, while maintaining a solid growth in private consumption,” the report said.
The Polish economy will also be supported by the acceleration of growth in Germany, especially the recovery from the recession of the German industry,” it added.
The main source of risks for the Polish economy in 2026 remains the external environment – trade policy of major economies and the geopolitical environment.
“A positive impulse for the economy would be the possible end of the war in Ukraine. The scale of this impact will depend on the conditions and durability of the concluded agreement,” economists point out.
What about inflation? There are many risks, but the prospects are good
In the opinion of Bank Millennium economists, CPI inflation will remain within the NBP target range for a long time, but the potential for its decline from current levels in the coming months is limited.
“The persistence of inflation within the NBP target will be supported by the continuation of favorable trends in the fuel and food markets. Low inflation also persists in the external environment of the Polish economy, and in addition, competition from goods imported from China is growing,” the report said.
“Commodity price inflation will therefore remain low. Especially since we assume that the zloty will remain strong. The decline in wage dynamics will support the slowdown in service price inflation,” it added.
The sources of risk for inflation at the beginning of 2026 are regulatory and methodological factors.
“This concerns, among others, the unfreezing of electricity prices. However, the tariffs adopted by the Energy Regulatory Office suggest that the new tariffs have a small impact on the amount of energy bills. This is consistent with our assumptions and trends in wholesale energy markets. The beginning of the year also means increases in excise tax rates on tobacco and alcohol products,” it was written.
Another source of uncertainty is the annual update of the inflation basket, and additionally the change in the COICOP classification of individual consumption, which is used to calculate consumer price inflation. Therefore, the actual picture of price processes in the Polish economy at the beginning of this year will be known in mid-March, when the Central Statistical Office will publish the final data for January and February, which will take into account the two methodological changes mentioned above,” it added.
According to economists, the external environment is also a source of risk for domestic inflation, including the possible intensification of geopolitical tensions, which may result in an increase in commodity prices, in particular crude oil.
Intensifying trade wars may increase price pressure
“However, the possible intensification of trade wars may increase the price pressure from imported goods. On the other hand, the possible end of the war in Ukraine may have a positive impact on inflation through a decline in the prices of energy raw materials. All the more so because in this scenario, the zloty is likely to strengthen,” the report said.
In the opinion of economists, the permanent return of inflation to the target and the expected further slowdown in wage growth provide room for a slight easing of monetary policy in 2026.
In our opinion, the scope of potential interest rate cuts however, it is not large, e.g. due to limited space for further inflation decline. In our scenario, we assume that at the end of 2026 the reference rate will be 3.50%. – it was written,
“After the rate cut in December 2025, we believe that the Monetary Policy Council will refrain from making another cut until March 2026 to assess the impact of the cuts made so far, as well as to clarify the risk factors for inflation related to, among others, electricity prices, increases in indirect taxes, a change in the inflation basket and a change in the COICOP classification. We estimate that the risks for the presented scenario are directed towards a slightly lower level of the reference rate, especially if an agreement is concluded ending the war on Ukraine (decrease in oil prices, strong zloty),” it added. (PAP Business)
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