Putin's “Minimum Plan”. Expert reveals the Kremlin's goals (not only territorial)

The Russian authorities are playing a game to extend negotiations on a ceasefire agreement in the war with Ukraine – said Prof. in an interview with PAP on Tuesday. Antonio Jose Telo, Portuguese political scientist and lecturer in contemporary history at the Military Academy in Lisbon.

The security expert emphasized that the Kremlin will decide to end the war against Ukraine when it decides that it has the best conditions for itself and “will not win anything more.”

– Unfortunately, there are no grounds for this at the moment. There are no circumstances in which Russia would suddenly slow down its economy geared towards war purposes. The authorities in Moscow are not yet convinced that the best moment has come to stop the war, said Prof. Telo.

According to him The Russian authorities established a “minimum victory plan” specifying the conditions for stopping military operationswhich is the establishment of a pro-Russian government in Kiev, as well as further territorial gains.

One of such Russian goals may be to reach Odessa in order to take an important foothold in southern Ukraine. The authorities in the Kremlin still believe that it is possible to achieve this goal. Therefore, it is beneficial for them to maintain an ambiguous position in the negotiations and constantly look for excuses to delay the peace talks, he added.

Prof. Telo noted that a change in this position may be caused by “the Russians' sudden loss of hope for further territorial gains in Ukraine.”

He admitted that the fact that President Donald Trump's administration is in power in the US is contributing to the Kremlin's obstruction of ceasefire talks.

– President Trump is focusing his attention on the Far East today. The greater threat to his policy today is China, not Russia, which he is trying to win over, added Prof. Telo.

According to a lecturer at the Military Academy in Lisbon, the key moment in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine passed when the US and EU countries hesitated regarding military aid for Kiev in the initial phase of the war.

– After the Ukrainians repelled the Russian offensive in the first half of 2022, there was a good opportunity for the West to provide Kiev with weapons appropriate (…) to throw the invader beyond the borders of Ukraine. This hesitation harmed the cause of peace. Today, Russia has no pressure to end the conflict in a hurry, he said.

In the opinion of the Portuguese expert, another unfavorable phenomenon for stopping hostilities is “the EU's delay in providing Kiev with the best type of weapons.”

– The West's transfer of long-range weapons to Ukraine and immediate sanctions covering deliveries of Russian oil and natural gas could prompt the Kremlin to suddenly change its position on the ongoing hostilities. These sanctions would have to be consistently enforced – concluded Prof. Telo.

From Lisbon Marcin Zatyka (PAP)

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