In October this year Russian troops occupied 461 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the Donetsk Oblast. This is where the heaviest fighting takes place, especially around the city of Pokrovsk. Currently, Russia currently controls approximately 77 percent. Donbasswhich includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Luhansk is 100 percent under Russian control. The Kremlin claims to control 19.2 percent. territory of Ukraine, including Crimea annexed in 2014.
To capture the rest of Donetsk by force, Russia will need not months, but three years. The pace of the Kremlin's progress on the front leaves much to be desired. That's why Putin has a cunning plan.
Several rounds of talks have so far ended without results, but the latest meeting in Berlin raised hopes of reaching an agreement – even though negotiations have stalled over a territory dispute.
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Kiev is under strong pressure from US President Donald Trump to make concessions to Russia and withdraw its forces from Donetsk, which would end the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Such a concession could trigger a violent reaction in Ukraine – President Volodymyr Zelensky said after the talks in Berlin that Ukraine would not recognize Donbas as Russian “neither de jure nor de facto.”
Moscow has also not yet agreed to any changes discussed in Germany and has not shown any willingness to make concessions.
In Berlin, Zelensky met with American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, as well as with European leaders. After these talks, Ukrainian official Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, wrote on the X platform that the negotiations were “constructive and productive, real progress was achieved.” Washington offered Kyiv NATO-style security guarantees, while warning that this offer would not last forever.
American officials admitted that there had been a significant rapprochement of positions between Russia and Ukraine and that a solution had been found for approximately 90 percent controversial issues. However, an agreement on territorial concessions is still a long way off, Reuters reports.
Ukraine does not intend to give Russia territories that it was unable to conquer by force, and Zelensky said that Moscow should not be rewarded for the war it started.
What concessions are expected from Ukraine?
The Ukrainian website Zn.ua recently published alleged provisions of the latest version of the American proposal for an agreement, in which Ukraine is expected to make major concessions, including:
recognition of the Crimean Peninsula, Luhansk and Donetsk as part of the territory of the Russian Federation
establishing a demilitarized zone in Donetsk, where the border would run along the front line
division of Zaporozhye and Kherson “in half”, in accordance with the current situation on the front
withdrawal of Russian troops from other parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia
Under this proposal, Ukraine would receive NATO Article 5-style security guarantees that were ultimately offered to it in Berlin.
A territory smaller than every voivodeship in Poland at the center of negotiations
Ukrainians emphasize that the war started in Donbas – not in 2022, but in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of the region's cities by pro-Russian separatists. Before the 2022 invasion, separatists controlled approximately 32 percent. this area.
The Kremlin is currently seeking to take over the entire Donbas, which covers approximately 6,500 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk Oblast that remains under Ukrainian control. According to the New York Times, this area, inhabited by over 200,000 Ukrainians, there are fortified cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Pokrovsk is also there, which Russia claims to have captured, while Kiev denies it and says fighting is still ongoing.
According to “Kyiv Independent”, the real reason why Moscow wants Donbas is of a military nature – it is about the so-called Ukrainian “strip of fortresses” – a 50-kilometer belt of heavily fortified cities, from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk to Druzhkivka and Konstantinivka. Today it is a “thorn in the side of the Kremlin”
This network of fortifications, trenches, minefields and anti-tank obstacles has been strengthened since 2014. After the Russians captured Bakhmut in 2023, Ukraine redoubled its efforts to strengthen its defense line. Former Defense Minister Andriy Zahorodniuk previously told The Economist that huge resources have been invested in this defense network, and Slavyansk and Kramatorsk have become “fortress cities” — logistics and industrial centers that have so far resisted the Russian offensive. And the progress of Putin's troops is very slow.
“It will take them three years to capture all of Donetsk.”
According to the report of the Institute for War Research (ISW) from October this year. Not only is Russia not close to capturing the rest of Donetsk, but – at the current pace of the offensive – it would take three years, until August 2027, “if the pace of progress does not change.”
In the latest report, published on Sunday, ISW states that Russian attempts to launch a battle for the “fortress belt” are likely to further strain their resourceswhich is already compounded by problems with the country's war economy and defense industry base. Russia will have to concentrate even more forces and reduce the number of troops on other sections of the front if it wants to occupy the rest of Donetsk.
The Kremlin demands that the unoccupied parts of the Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts be recognized as Russian, because the Kremlin is currently unable to conquer these regions by force, concludes ISW.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
