Core inflation excluding energy, fuel and food prices in Poland in November 2025 was 2.7%. year to year – the National Bank of Poland reported on Tuesday afternoon. The reading is in line with economists' forecasts. This is the lowest level in six years: in November 2019, the rate was 2.6%.
This means a reduction in the core inflation rate of 3%. recorded in October and 4.3 percent in November last year. At the turn of 2024-2025, this price measure was 4%, and the record in this economic cycle was in March 2023, when it was as much as 12.3%.
The National Bank of Poland calculates four core inflation indicators every month, which helps to understand the nature of inflation in Poland. The indicator after excluding administered prices (subject to state control) dropped to 2%. year to year from 2.3 percent in October. Core inflation in the variant excluding the most volatile prices decreased to 3.1%. year to year from 3.4 percent, and the so-called 15 percent trimmed mean, which eliminates the impact of 15 percent. basket of prices with the lowest and highest dynamics decreased to 2.4%. year to year from 2.6 percent a month earlier.
What is core inflation?
The most popular variant of core inflation calculated by NBP does not take into account energy, fuel and food prices, which are largely determined on international markets (or are largely influenced by regulations) and on which the central bank has less influence. This measure better illustrates the internal inflation pressure and is crucial for the Monetary Policy Council's decisions regarding interest rates.
The NBP itself explains that core inflation allows for better identification of inflation sources and more accurate forecasts of its future trends.. “It also allows us to determine the extent to which inflation is permanent and the extent to which it is shaped, for example, by short-term price changes caused by unpredictable factors,” says the central bank.
“The annualized momentum of core inflation has clearly decelerated compared to the end of 2024, indicating that price processes in core categories have calmed down. We assume that core inflation will remain in the range of 3.0-3.5% year-on-year by the end of the year,” wrote PKO BP economists, announcing today's NBP publication.
Let us recall that a few days ago, the Central Statistical Office reported in the final reading that consumer CPI inflation in November 2025 dropped to 2.5%. year to year. Although this was not as low a result as the 2.4% reported in the preliminary data, it was a level consistent with the NBP's point inflation target (2.5%). This also means a clear decline in the indicator compared to the publication from a month ago, when it was 2.8%. Economists forecast that in the coming months CPI inflation should still be around the NBP target.
