The year 2025 was marked by macroeconomic stabilization. Poland's GDP increased by 3.5% and inflation dropped to 2.4%.which enabled interest rate cuts by a total of 175 basis points. This created more predictable conditions for investors and borrowers, although – as experts emphasize – caution has not disappeared.
Forecasts for 2026 indicate that GDP growth will remain at approximately 3.5%.
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— The year 2025 showed the resilience of the Polish economy. GDP growth of 3.5%. while stabilizing inflation at the end of the year at the level of the central bank's target, this is a solid foundation for further development. Reductions in interest rates by 175 basis points gave the market the breathing space it needed, although investors still maintain a selective approach, says Grzegorz Sielewicz, director of the Economic and Market Analysis Department in the Central and Eastern Europe region at Colliers.
- Public investments and KPO as the engine of 2026.
Forecasts for 2026 indicate that GDP growth will remain at approximately 3.5%, but with a different structure than before. Consumption will remain important, although its dynamics may weaken as wages grow slower. The key impulse is to be investments – primarily those financed from EU funds.
— We enter 2026 with optimism, the main source of which is EU funds and investment revival. The release of funds from the KPO and cohesion policy will be a strong catalyst for the construction and investment sector. We expect that public and structural investments will take over the leadership of economic growth, emphasizes Grzegorz Sielewicz.
- External risks and exports
External factors cast a shadow on the forecasts: the condition of Germany, possible trade tensions and uncertainty around global supply chains. However, Colliers experts point out that strong internal demand acts as a safety buffer for the Polish economy.
The release of funds from the KPO and cohesion policy will be a strong catalyst for the construction and investment sector
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Offices: supply gap, ESG and pressure on rents
- Record low new supply and building withdrawals
The office market enters 2026 with a historically low volume of new projects. In Warsaw, approximately 500,000 products have been withdrawn from the market over the last 5 years. m2 of space, and only in 2025 over 140 thousand. sq m, including in the Saski Point and Królewska 14 projects. The reason is: rising costs, ESG pressure and decisions to convert older office buildings — mainly for residential functions.
— The trend of withdrawing older and less profitable office buildings from the market in order to modernize them or change their functions is clearly gaining strength. At the same time, in 2025 the office market in Poland recorded a record low level of new supply, clearly below the results from previous years – says Katarzyna Tasarek-Skrok, director of the Office Agency Department at Colliers.
- The hybrid redefines demand
The hybrid work model has ceased to be an experiment and has become a standard. In Warsaw, as much as 94 percent companies work in a hybrid model, and only 8 percent I prefer to work only from the office. This translates into optimization and reorganization of space, but not a collapse in demand.
— The hybrid not only maintains its popularity, but also continues to evolve. Companies are increasingly moving away from uniform rules for the entire organization, introducing different work models tailored to the specificity of individual teams – notes Dorota Osiecka, partner at Colliers, director of Colliers Define.
- Rents up, flex in importance
Forecasts for 2026 indicate that the supply gap will remain longer, especially in central business zones. This means pressure on rent increases in new, certified projects and the growing role of flex offices as an element of the leasing strategy.
— Limited availability of new space, with stable demand, means that this will be the case in the coming quarters noticeable pressure on the increase in rental rates. Owners of quality assets gain negotiating power, while older office buildings require modernization, deepening market polarization, says Paweł Proński, director of the Office Agency Department at Colliers.
Trade: retail parks and format transformation
- Retail parks in the spotlight of investors
The year 2025 belonged to retail parks — both in terms of new supply and investment transactions. The most famous event was the sale of a portfolio of 36 retail parks by Trei Real Estate to Slate Asset Management and Ares Management for over EUR 300 million and the transaction of 10 BHM facilities sold to the Czech Reticulum/MyPark fund for over EUR 50 million.
– Moreover, they are being carried out reconstruction and modernization of selected commercial facilitieswhich are changing from big-box formats and first-generation shopping centers into retail parks – says Anna Radecka-Łysiak, director of the Retail Agency at Colliers.
- Recreation, services and locality
Tenant-mix is evolving towards services, fitness and gastronomythat increase the frequency of visits. Retail parks are increasingly serving as local social centers, especially in smaller cities, where suburbanization favors their development.
— Selected operators and tenants, previously known from traditional shopping centers, will decide to debut in the retail park format. These will be not only fashion brands, but also health care, fitness and catering operators, says Marta Cegielnik, director of the Retail Agency at Colliers.
- ESG and multifunctional projects
Forecasts for 2026 assume further development of retail parks and the growing attractiveness of multifunctional projectscombining trade, services, apartments and offices. At the same time, owners of older facilities will have to deal with regulatory pressure and ESG expectations.
— In the face of energy transformation and ESG policy, it is becoming a key factor in building competitive advantage implementing a coherent decarbonization strategy – emphasizes Anna Radecka-Łysiak.
Application: 2026 will not be a year of a homogeneous boom, but a time of selective growth. The economy will gain an investment impulse from the EU, offices will enter a phase of deficit of new supply, and trade will strengthen thanks to retail parks and mixed-use projects. For investors and tenants, the quality of assets, location and ability to adapt to new market realities will be crucial.
