What Trump's EU strategy would actually be: why Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary are targeted

The publication of the Trump administration's National Security Strategy on December 4 was seen by many European politicians as an affront, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying certain passages were “unacceptable from a European perspective”. Before the publication of the official strategy, however, a larger, unpublished draft was circulated that would more clearly detail the plans the US would have for Europe. According to digital media platform Defense One, which claims to have consulted on the draft, the document would list Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary as countries with which the US should “work more closely with the aim of distancing” them from the European Union. The White House has denied the existence of such a project.

Trump and European leaders PHOTO © x.com / The White House

But the question remains: is the US trying to divide the European Union? And why are these four countries of particular interest?

Experts such as Daniel Hegedüs, regional director for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, doubt that the US objective would be to force one of these four countries to leave the EU, but rather to encourage a gradual disintegration of European integration through diplomatic, political and possibly financial support.

The first signs are already visible. Although the EU has agreed to gradually reduce dependence on Russian energy and ban imports of liquefied natural gas by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas imports by the fall of 2027, Hungary has announced it will refuse to comply.

In November, Prime Minister Orbán obtained from Trump a waiver of US sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports. He said he does not accept the EU's decision and will take the case to the Court of Justice of the European Union. In a joint press conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Orbán announced that Turkey will continue to guarantee the transport route of Russian gas to Hungary via the TurkStream gas pipeline.

Hegedüs anticipates that, in the coming years, more and more similar cases will appear, in which member states will not respect joint decisions, thus increasingly calling into question the very essence of European integration.

Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary

Hungary's presence on the list is perhaps the least surprising, given that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and US President Trump remain close allies. Orbán endorsed Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign — being, at the time, the only ruling EU leader to do so.

Viktor Orban and Donald Trump PHOTO Profimedia

Both benefit from each other's political positions. Orbán is widely perceived as a maverick and a destabilizing force for the EU — an institution that Trump appears to view with deep distrust. Trump has called Orbán “my great friend” and is alleged to have offered Hungary a $20 billion (€17 billion) “financial shield,” similar to the one recently offered to Argentina. Hungary's economy is in a fragile state, and important EU funds destined for the country have been frozen due to persistent concerns about democratic backsliding.

Trump told Politico earlier this month that he had not promised Hungary financial support, but confirmed that Orbán had requested one.

The US president also appears enthusiastic about Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Brotherhood of Italy party, a right-wing party with neo-fascist roots.

Trump has not hidden his affection for Giorgia Meloni. He described her as a “fantastic woman” which has “Europe by storm” when he visited Mar-a-Lago before his inauguration.

He also extended praise to the leader of the Brotherhood of Italy party during her visit to the Oval Office in April and called her “beautiful” at the Middle East Peace Summit in Egypt in October.

However, Daniel Hegedüs believes that the US government is starting from a “misinterpretation” when it assumes that Meloni would oppose the EU.

Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump PHOTO AFP

Although he shares certain ideological views with Orbán, Meloni has not had an obstructionist role within the community bloc. On the contrary, she is very pragmatic, Hegedüs told DW, adding that few leaders have understood as well as she how a stable European Union can benefit Italy.

Although neither Poland nor Austria are currently led by right-wing populist governments, this was the case until recently, and right-wing and Eurosceptic parties remain highly influential in both countries. In the last election, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) was the strongest political force and currently leads in the polls. In Poland last summer, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, won the presidential election.

It is therefore not surprising that the Trump administration may soon hope to exert greater influence in both states.

What is surprising, Duetsche Welle notes, is the absence of two EU member states from the list: the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

In the Czech Republic, parliamentary elections were won in October by billionaire Andrej Babiš and his populist ANO party. Babiš formed a coalition government with the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party and the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party.

Slovakia, meanwhile, has seen a shift to the right since Robert Fico returned to power as prime minister in 2023. His Smer-SD party, nominally social democratic but in reality nationalist and increasingly right-wing, was recently expelled from the Party of European Socialists.

Both Babiš and Fico are vocal critics of the EU and have the potential to wreak havoc on European decision-making and undermine the bloc's authority on strategic matters, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine — traits the current Trump administration is likely to appreciate.

Hegedüs believes that the fact that the two states are not mentioned in the final strategy document has to do with the origins of their parties. For a long time, ANO could not be clearly placed on the left-right axis, and Smer-SD defined itself as left-wing.

“It is very clear how ideological the US approach is” said Hegedüs. “Because Smer and ANO do not have a traditional right-wing populist background, they are not considered ideologically aligned, even if they could promote policies useful to the Trump administration.“

The US National Security Strategy, published last week, warns that Europe is facing “civilizational erasure” if it does not reduce migration and will be “unrecognizable in 20 years or less” if current trends continue.

But a longer version of the strategy, which was reportedly circulated before the 29-page document was released by the White House, is more explicit about how the U.S. can “Great Europe Again”writes The Telegraph.

The White House has denied the existence of this longer version, calling the reports true “fake news”. According to media reports, however, the NSS proposes that the US work to strengthen relations with European countries that are aligned with the Trump administration.

Trump would support European sovereign parties

The longer version of the NSS is understood to also state that the US “should support parties, movements and intellectual and cultural figures that seek sovereignty and the preservation/restoration of the traditional European way of life… while remaining pro-American”.

This appears to be based on the official document's objective of a “cultivating resistance to Europe's current trajectory within European nations”targeting potential allies in “the growing influence of European patriotic parties”.

The parties are not explicitly named but are understood to include France's Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, Spain's Vox, Britain's Reform, Germany's AFD and Ms Meloni's Brothers of Italy.

Trump this week blasted European leaders as “weak” for failing to end the war in Ukraine and accused them of overseeing a continent “decayed”affected by illegal migration and political correctness.

“Core 5” with China and Russia

As the US president's frustration with Europe becomes more apparent, the House of Representatives on Wednesday prepared to vote on the National Defense Authorization Act, which would limit how much the US military presence on the continent can be reduced without congressional approval.

The leaked version of the NSS would also have called for the creation of a new power body called “Core 5”consisting of the USA, China, Russia, India and Japan.

Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said reports of the longer NSS are “fake news”.

“There is no alternative, private or classified version. President Trump is transparent and has signed a single NSS that clearly instructs the US government to implement the principles and priorities he has defined.”she told The Telegraph, adding:“Any other so-called 'version' is being leaked by people far removed from the president who … have no idea what they're talking about.”