This is how much we will spend on Christmas. The shopping cart will be more expensive

In November, prices of everyday items were higher on average by 4.2%. year to year, but the increase in prices in stores is slowing down – according to a report by UCE Research and WSB Merito Universities. Experts predict that the Christmas shopping basket will increase in price by approximately 4% annually.

The data presented in the report was based on a survey of commodity prices in 17 product categories. In September, the price increase was 4.9%. year to year, and in October 4.1 percent In November, the increase was 4.2%. Food prices alone increased by 3.7% in November. year to year. In October they increased by 3.6%. y/y, and in September – by 4.1%.

The authors of the report noted that the difference between the prices of products in all analyzed categories and the food itself is still visible, although it is gradually decreasing. Analysts from UCE Research also pointed out that the increase in prices in stores is still higher than the general inflation rate.

“It seems that the prices of other categories are growing slower than those in stores. This is my constant observation. Over the last 23 months, only in July 2024, general inflation was higher than indicated in our reports on prices in stores. Moreover, in the spring and summer of last year, both indicators were equal three times,” noted Dr. Marek Szymański from the WSB Merito University.

According to Dr. Justyna Rybacka from the WSB Merito University, we can expect it to happen by Christmas the increase in food prices will remain at an average level of approximately 4%. year to year. This opinion is shared by analysts from UCE Research, who predict that the average increase in prices of basic items will amount to 4% in December. year to year, which means a slowdown in price increases.

According to the report, according to rough estimates, in the first week of December, the price of purchases increased by 4.1% year-on-year. Food prices alone increased by 3.4% during this time. rdr. For comparison, a year ago – at exactly the same time – the price increase was 5.6%. rdr.

“These are preliminary data and the values ​​for the entire month may still change slightly. It is worth noting that retail chains launched very intensive promotional campaigns at the beginning of December, especially when it comes to food. In addition, it is clear that retailers are doing everything to make sure that consumers notice this year that the holidays will not be expensive at all. In reality, of course, this may not be entirely the case, especially when it comes to several categories that record double-digit growth year on year,” the report noted.

Dr. Szymański pointed out that it is difficult to clearly predict the mutual relations between general and store inflation.

“Changes are possible in the long term, but too many factors may influence it to accurately predict the results,” said the expert.

The report presents the results of an analysis that compared 94,000 retail prices from over 44 thousand stores belonging to 61 retail chains. The study covered all discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience and cash&carry chains that reach the majority of consumers in Poland with their offer. (PAP)

gkc/mmu/