Inflation does not give way and remains in the area of ​​10%. Isărescu can reduce the demand, but he cannot bring in more car mechanics or doctors

Annual inflation remained in November 2025 at 9.8%, virtually unchanged for two months, after a peak of 9.9%, according to Friday's Statistici announcement. It is the second month in a row that prices are stuck in the 10% zone — a level 4 times higher than in the euro zone.

The stagnation of inflation is also a signal that we are no longer in a demand-driven inflation, but a cost-driven one. And the BNR cannot control the costs.

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While the National Bank keeps the monetary policy interest rate high, curbing lending and consumption, prices continue to rise in the three areas that monetary policy cannot “fix”: energy, services and imported or intensively processed food.

Services – the main driver of inflation (10.99%)

Here you can see the limit of the BNR most clearly. Prices in services are increasing by 10.99%, well above the overall average.
And we are not talking about “luxury” services, but about: CFR tickets: +18.6%, hygiene and cosmetics: +17.9%, car repairs: +16.3%, urban transport: +13.4% or medical assistance: +13.3%

These increases come from rising wages, lack of personnel, or rising costs of materials.

The NBR can reduce demand, but it cannot bring in more car mechanics, CFR drivers or doctors.
Nor can it force firms to become more efficient.

That is why inflation in services is considered the most “sticky” — and exactly this type of inflation dominates Romania in 2025.

Energy and non-food commodities – the area where inflation has escaped the control of any central bank

Non-food goods rise in price by an average of 10.73%, but the figure hides a major shock: electricity: +62.36%

The explosion comes after the removal of the capping scheme. A fiscal decision, not a monetary one.

In the same category: thermal energy: +18.8%, books/newspapers/magazines: +10.2%, detergents: +9.6%, medicines: +5.5%, fuels: +6%

The BNR does not set regulated tariffs, does not control excise duties, does not manage energy distribution and cannot stop price increases in global supply chains.

In other words: the NBR is fighting an inflation that comes through the back door, not through demand.

Groceries – many price increases, few decreases

Food increases by 7.64%, but within the category there are spectacular increases: fresh fruit: +15.1%, coffee: +20.5%, sugar products: +13.8%, milk: +11.2%, citrus fruits: +9.9%, eggs: +9.4%, bread: +9.8%

Decreases exist, but are limited to categories with strong seasonality: potatoes: –9.7%, vegetables and canned vegetables: –1.4%, beans/legumes: –2.4%

The food problem is structural: Romania imports massively, and prices are extremely sensitive to the climate, logistics costs, transport and taxes. The BNR has no leverage here either.

What is the basic scenario of the National Bank

In the NBR's baseline scenario, the annual CPI inflation rate is projected to decline after sharp increases this autumn, driven by the liberalization of the electricity market and the large increase in indirect taxes in August.

As a result of these shocks, the inflation rate rose to 9.88% in September, a level that marks the peak of the analyzed period, and will slowly decrease until 9.6% in December. “High levels of inflation will persist until the middle of next year, and with the recent shocks out of the reporting base, the annual rate will decline significantly – by around 5 percentage points in the third quarter of 2026.

Subsequently, the disinflationary process will be supported by the deepening of the demand deficit and the gradual tempering of inflationary expectations. Under these conditions, the annual rate of CPI inflation is estimated at 3.7% at the end of 2026, returning to the target range in the first quarter of 2027 and falling to around 2.9% in the third quarter of 2027″, says the Inflation Report recently published by the Central Bank.