Poland in the lead, Germany behind. We are the economic leader of the EU in 2026

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated that in 2025 the global economy has shown resilience, and global GDP growth will amount to 3.2%. According to the OECD forecast, in 2026 Poland's GDP growth will amount to 3.4%. and will be the highest in the EU.

According to the OECD Economic Outlook report, the world leader in terms of GDP growth dynamics will be Ireland in 2025 with a reading of 10.2%. An increase of at least 5%. it is also expected in India (6.7%), Indonesia and China (5.0% each).

According to the document, next year's global GDP growth will amount to 2.9%. India (6.2%) and Indonesia (5.0%) will remain the leaders. In China, the GDP growth rate is forecast to decline to 4.4%.

According to the OECD, the United States is expected to close the current year with GDP growth of 2.0 percent, but in 2026 the organization forecasts it will amount to 1.7 percent.

The OECD does not provide GDP growth forecasts for the entire EU, but only for individual countries.

According to the forecast, in 2026 the GDP growth rate in Poland will be 3.4%. and will be the highest in the entire EU. Level 3 percent it is also expected to exceed Lithuania with a reading of 3.1 percent, and 2.9 percent. GDP growth is expected to be in Estonia. Germany is expected to close the current year with a GDP growth of 0.3 percent, and in 2026, the GDP growth rate in this country is expected to reach 1.0 percent.

According to the OECD report, in 2027 Poland's GDP is expected to increase by 2.7 percent; the rate is to be slightly higher only in Ireland and Estonia; in both countries 2.8 percent

According to the OECD, annual core inflation in the G20 economies will decline from the forecast 3.4%. this year to 2.9 percent, respectively. in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027.

According to the OECD, “the full effects of higher tariffs are not yet felt, but are becoming increasingly visible in spending decisions, business costs and consumer prices, especially in the United States.”

The document also emphasizes that in the second quarter of this year, global trade growth slowed down.

The introduction of further trade barriers, lower-than-expected returns on net investments in artificial intelligence or unexpected increases in inflation were considered the most serious threats to further economic growth. The main reason for this assessment may be – according to the report's authors – “tight asset valuations and optimism about corporate earnings.” The document also emphasizes that the source of threats to the global economy may be “high volatility of crypto-asset prices and growing connections of non-bank financial institutions with the traditional financial system.”

The OECD also called on central banks to “remain vigilant and respond quickly to changes in the balance of risks to price stability.” It recommended further interest rate cuts in countries where “moderate or low inflation is forecast” and assuming that “inflation expectations remain well anchored.”

The OECD brings together 38 countries around the world, mainly Europe, as well as the USA, Turkey, Israel and 10 countries from the Pacific basin, including Australia, Japan, Canada and South Korea. (PAP)

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