2025-12-04 09:17
publication
2025-12-04 09:17
The WIG20 index was still under bearish pressure on Wednesday, declining by 0.73% and ending below 2,950 points. In turn, the growth continues on Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 0.30%, and the Nasdaq100 increased by 0.20% – write analysts of BM Bank BNP Paribas in their morning commentary.
Wednesday on the domestic market brought a continuation of Tuesday's weakening. The WIG20 index continued to be under bearish pressure, declining by 0.73% and ending below 2,950 points. Among the blue-chips, consumer companies performed the worst, including CCC (-6.16%), Dino (-2.86%), Allegro (-2.60%) and Żabka (-2.00%). In addition, the WIG20 index result was weighed down by the shares of PGE (-1.65%) and Orlen (-1.54%), which extends the ongoing correction due to concerns about maintaining model refining margins. There was also a bearish mood among medium-sized companies and mWIG40 fell by almost 0.20% and sWIG80 lost 0.44%.
The fifth rate cut in a row
The quotations were not helped by the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, which, as expected, reduced interest rates by 25bps, lowering the reference rate to 4.00%. This is the fifth consecutive reduction in rates, and the total scale of reductions amounted to 175bps. In its justification, the Council referred to data from the Polish economy, in particular the lower dynamics of CPI inflation and the slowdown in the dynamics of wages in the enterprise sector.
BNP Paribas economists believe that after the December downward adjustment of interest rates, the Council may decide to pause the process of easing monetary policy. Especially since the statement emphasized that the risk factors for the inflation outlook remain the shape of fiscal policy, the revival of demand in the economy, as well as the dynamics of wages, energy prices and global inflation.
The zloty is stronger. Wall Street continues to rally
The decision to reduce interest rates was widely expected by the market, hence the lack of depreciation of the domestic currency. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fell to 4.22 during Wednesday's session. The strengthening of the zloty was supported by, among others, increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate and the growing probability of a longer break in the current monetary easing cycle in Poland.
In turn, the growth continues on Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 0.30% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.20%. Despite the rather negative sentiment, the market does not support supply and remains relatively close to historical highs.
What will the president of the National Bank of Poland say?
Today there will be a conference of the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, which should shed more light on the prospects for monetary policy in the coming months. However, BNP Paribas economists maintain the forecast of a decline in the main interest rate to 3.50% by mid-2026. There are no important releases on the macro calendar, and the market is focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Tymoteusz Barwiński, Brokerage Office of BNP Paribas Bank
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